{"id":21226,"date":"2025-01-08T09:49:32","date_gmt":"2025-01-08T08:49:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/?p=21226"},"modified":"2025-01-14T12:08:59","modified_gmt":"2025-01-14T11:08:59","slug":"verifying-tinubus-claims-on-nigerias-economic-progress-in-new-year-address","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/verifying-tinubus-claims-on-nigerias-economic-progress-in-new-year-address\/","title":{"rendered":"Verifying Tinubu\u2019s claims on Nigeria\u2019s economic progress in New Year address"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Full Text<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Since Bola Tinubu, Nigeria\u2019s president, addressed the nation in his January 2025 New Year speech, citizens have battled frightening inflation rates. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), goods inflation surged from 29.9%<\/a> at the month\u2019s end to a 30-year high of 34.6%<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amidst the economic crises, workers at federal government establishments are yet to begin earning the N70,000 minimum wage<\/a>, despite its approval and implementation since July 2024, when it rose by 133% from the previous amount. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Nigerians were yet to get accustomed to the fuel subsidy removal that the Tinubu-led administration implemented in 2023, which plunged many citizens into severe economic hardship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the Presidential New Year address on Jan. 1, 2025, Mr Tinubu said the country\u2019s economic outlook looks promising despite witnessing a nationwide 10-day-long protest<\/a> against economic hardship and general dissatisfaction with his administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He mentioned fuel price reduction, increased foreign trade and foreign reserves, and a more substantial value for the Naira against the dollar as metrics for overall economic stability analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said, \u201cEconomic indicators point to a positive and encouraging outlook for our nation. Fuel prices have gradually decreased, and we recorded foreign trade surpluses in three consecutive quarters. Foreign reserves have risen, and the Naira has strengthened against the US dollar, bringing greater stability.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We identified four claims on Nigeria\u2019s economic trajectory from the president’s speech for verification.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claim 1: \u201cFuel prices have gradually decreased.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following fuel subsidy removal as part of Mr Tinubu\u2019s inaugural economic reform announcement, prices surged thrice throughout 2024. Retail sellers priced petrol at around N617 per litre<\/a> at the start of the year. By Sept. 3, 2024, the price increased by 45.38% to between N855 and N897 per litre<\/a>, marking. This trend continued, with further hikes leading to prices reaching N1,030 per litre<\/a> by October. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Different factors contributed to the recent decrease in petrol prices from N1,060 to N1,040 per litre<\/a>, as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) announced. The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) indicated that its members would reduce prices<\/a> by N50 per litre when sourcing directly from Dangote Refinery, a relief for consumers facing rising living costs throughout the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Fuel price projection since Tinubu\u2019s inauguration. Designed by Phillip Anjorin\/DUBAWA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Verdict: MISLEADING!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claim 2: Nigeria recorded foreign trade surplus in three consecutive quarters<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2024\u2019s first quarter, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that Nigeria\u2019s total merchandise trade<\/a> reached an impressive N31.8 trillion. This is an increase of 46.27% from the previous quarter and an astonishing rise of 145.58% compared to the same period in 2023. Exports accounted for N19.167 trillion, a 51% increase from 2023 Q4\u2019s figures. Crude oil exports dominated this figure, amounting to N15.48 trillion and making up approximately 80.80% of total exports. The trade balance for this quarter stood at N6.52 trillion, indicating a healthy surplus driven by strong export performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The total value of foreign trade in 2024 Q2<\/a>, at N31.9 trillion, was better than in Q2 2023 when trade was valued at N12.7 trillion. Increased oil and non-oil exports drove the trade surplus to N19.4 trillion during this period. Meanwhile, Nigeria\u2019s dependence on imported fuel and other goods increased imports to N12.5 trillion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The growth trend continued into the third quarter, with total merchandise trade reaching N35.16 trillion<\/a>, an 81.35% and 13.26% increase from Q3 2023 and Q2 2024, respectively. Exports also rose by 16.76% from the previous quarter and 98% year-on-year to N20.49 trillion, with crude oil exports contributing significantly to this growth. The import bill also increased to N14.67 trillion during this period. However, Nigeria maintained a trade surplus of N5.81 trillion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Foreign trade trend in 2024\u2019s first quarters. Designed by Phillip Anjorin\/DUBAWA<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Verdict: TRUE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claim 3: Nigeria\u2019s foreign reserve has risen<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, the nation\u2019s foreign reserves stood at approximately $32.87 billion<\/a> as of December 2023. By September 19, 2024, the reserves had risen to $39.07 billion<\/a>, representing a significant year-on-year increase of about 17.4%. Several factors contributed to the growth, including increased crude oil production, improved remittance flows, and strategic reforms the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) implemented to attract foreign capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

By Dec. 30, 2024, Nigeria’s foreign reserves increased by 24.2% to $40.88 billion in one year<\/a>. However, the naira recorded a 40.9% loss against the dollar in the official market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nigeria\u2019s foreign reserve between December 2023 and 2024. Designed by Phillip Anjorin\/DUBAWA<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Verdict: TRUE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claim 4: Naira has strengthened against the US Dollar<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of Dec. 31, 2024, the exchange rate<\/a> was quoted at approximately N1,535 per dollar, a steep decline from N997 per dollar at the end of 2023, which represented a 40.9% loss in value over the year. The naira started the year at around N988.46 per dollar on January 2, 2024, and fell to N1,535 by year-end, indicating a consistent downward trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The exchange rate data for 2024 revealed that the naira faced increasing pressure due to heightened demand for foreign currency to meet various needs, including imports and other expenses. The naira fluctuated significantly throughout the year, with the highest recorded rate being N1,685.62 in the official market (N1,745<\/a> in the parallel market) on Nov. 27, 2024. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Verdict: MISLEADING<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Full Text Since Bola Tinubu, Nigeria\u2019s president, addressed the nation in his January 2025 New Year speech, citizens have battled frightening inflation rates. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), goods inflation surged from 29.9% at the month\u2019s end to a 30-year high of 34.6%.\u00a0 Amidst the economic crises, workers at federal government establishments are yet to begin earning the N70,000 minimum wage, despite its approval and implementation since July 2024, when it rose by 133% from the previous amount.  However, Nigerians were yet to get accustomed to the fuel subsidy removal that the Tinubu-led administration implemented in 2023, which plunged many citizens into severe economic hardship. At the Presidential New Year address on Jan. 1, 2025, Mr Tinubu said the country\u2019s economic outlook looks promising despite witnessing a nationwide 10-day-long protest against economic hardship and general dissatisfaction with his administration. He mentioned fuel price reduction, increased foreign trade and foreign reserves, and a more substantial value for the Naira against the dollar as metrics for overall economic stability analysis. He said, \u201cEconomic indicators point to a positive and encouraging outlook for our nation. Fuel prices have gradually decreased, and we recorded foreign trade surpluses in three consecutive quarters. Foreign reserves have risen, and the Naira has strengthened against the US dollar, bringing greater stability.\u201d We identified four claims on Nigeria\u2019s economic trajectory from the president’s speech for verification. Claim 1: \u201cFuel prices have gradually decreased.\u201d Following fuel subsidy removal as part of Mr Tinubu\u2019s inaugural economic reform announcement, prices surged thrice throughout 2024. Retail sellers priced petrol at around N617 per litre at the start of the year. By Sept. 3, 2024, the price increased by 45.38% to between N855 and N897 per litre, marking. This trend continued, with further hikes leading to prices reaching N1,030 per litre by October.  Different factors contributed to the recent decrease in petrol prices from N1,060 to N1,040 per litre, as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) announced. The Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN) indicated that its members would reduce prices by N50 per litre when sourcing directly from Dangote Refinery, a relief for consumers facing rising living costs throughout the year. Verdict: MISLEADING! Claim 2: Nigeria recorded foreign trade surplus in three consecutive quarters In 2024\u2019s first quarter, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) revealed that Nigeria\u2019s total merchandise trade reached an impressive N31.8 trillion. This is an increase of 46.27% from the previous quarter and an astonishing rise of 145.58% compared to the same period in 2023. Exports accounted for N19.167 trillion, a 51% increase from 2023 Q4\u2019s figures. Crude oil exports dominated this figure, amounting to N15.48 trillion and making up approximately 80.80% of total exports. The trade balance for this quarter stood at N6.52 trillion, indicating a healthy surplus driven by strong export performance. The total value of foreign trade in 2024 Q2, at N31.9 trillion, was better than in Q2 2023 when trade was valued at N12.7 trillion. Increased oil and non-oil exports drove the trade surplus to N19.4 trillion during this period. Meanwhile, Nigeria\u2019s dependence on imported fuel and other goods increased imports to N12.5 trillion. The growth trend continued into the third quarter, with total merchandise trade reaching N35.16 trillion, an 81.35% and 13.26% increase from Q3 2023 and Q2 2024, respectively. Exports also rose by 16.76% from the previous quarter and 98% year-on-year to N20.49 trillion, with crude oil exports contributing significantly to this growth. The import bill also increased to N14.67 trillion during this period. However, Nigeria maintained a trade surplus of N5.81 trillion. Verdict: TRUE Claim 3: Nigeria\u2019s foreign reserve has risen According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, the nation\u2019s foreign reserves stood at approximately $32.87 billion as of December 2023. By September 19, 2024, the reserves had risen to $39.07 billion, representing a significant year-on-year increase of about 17.4%. Several factors contributed to the growth, including increased crude oil production, improved remittance flows, and strategic reforms the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) implemented to attract foreign capital. By Dec. 30, 2024, Nigeria’s foreign reserves increased by 24.2% to $40.88 billion in one year. However, the naira recorded a 40.9% loss against the dollar in the official market. Verdict: TRUE Claim 4: Naira has strengthened against the US Dollar As of Dec. 31, 2024, the exchange rate was quoted at approximately N1,535 per dollar, a steep decline from N997 per dollar at the end of 2023, which represented a 40.9% loss in value over the year. The naira started the year at around N988.46 per dollar on January 2, 2024, and fell to N1,535 by year-end, indicating a consistent downward trend. The exchange rate data for 2024 revealed that the naira faced increasing pressure due to heightened demand for foreign currency to meet various needs, including imports and other expenses. The naira fluctuated significantly throughout the year, with the highest recorded rate being N1,685.62 in the official market (N1,745 in the parallel market) on Nov. 27, 2024.  Verdict: MISLEADING<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19695,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"hannibal_claim_source":"","hannibal_source_label":"","hannibal_card_color":"blue","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"default","_twitter_share_type":"default","_linkedin_share_type":"default","_pinterest_share_type":"default","_linkedin_share_type_page":"default","_instagram_share_type":"default","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_bluesky_share_type":"","_mastodon_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[1571,3812,3815,16],"tags":[],"verdict":[],"ppma_author":[3263],"class_list":["post-21226","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fact-check","category-headline","category-homepage","category-politics"],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8R6dE-5wm","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"authors":[{"term_id":3263,"user_id":0,"is_guest":1,"slug":"phillip-anjorin","display_name":"Phillip Anjorin","avatar_url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/98daaf5d9d7a2c5cd4ce1c417532d1cfa2ca293247710cf46a925146cc2e90e1?s=96&r=g","author_category":"","user_url":"","last_name":"","first_name":"","job_title":"","description":""}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Tinubu-images.jpg?fit=1080%2C816&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21226","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21226"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21226\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21252,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21226\/revisions\/21252"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19695"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21226"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21226"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21226"},{"taxonomy":"verdict","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/verdict?post=21226"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=21226"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}