{"id":2124,"date":"2019-03-12T16:30:12","date_gmt":"2019-03-12T15:30:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/?p=2124"},"modified":"2019-08-26T17:01:36","modified_gmt":"2019-08-26T16:01:36","slug":"how-correct-are-donald-dukes-figures-on-nigerias-population-and-economy-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/how-correct-are-donald-dukes-figures-on-nigerias-population-and-economy-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"How Correct Are Donald Duke\u2019s Figures on Nigeria\u2019s Population and Economic Growth?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

CLAIM 1:<\/strong> Donald Duke, the presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) said Nigeria\u2019s population growth rate is \u201c3.2% or thereabout<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EVIDENCE:<\/strong> According to the 2017 Demographic Statistics Bulletin published in May 2018 by the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria\u2019s population growth rate is 3.12% <\/p>\n\n\n\n

CONCLUSION: <\/strong>TRUE<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CLAIM 2<\/strong>: Donald Duke, SDP presidential candidate, put Nigeria\u2019s economic growth rate at 1.2%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CONCLUSION:<\/strong> FALSE
<\/p>\n\n\n

FULL TEXT: <\/strong><\/p>\n

The question of how healthy Nigeria\u2019s economy has been under the current Buhari-led administration has been an unending one. Almost every presidential hopeful in the just-held 2019 elections has continuously harped on this question \u2013 each suggesting a way forward while also picking the holes in the economic prosperity of the country.<\/span><\/p>\n

Donald Duke<\/a>, the flagbearer of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), recently waded in on the subject in question. He said in an interview with Channels TV,<\/a> after the Court of Appeal declared him the candidate of the SDP in coming national elections, that Nigeria\u2019s economy<\/a> is not growing at the same rate as the population growth rate.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cThe government says for instance that we are out of recession because the economy is growing at 1.2 or 1.3 per cent. That\u2019s hogwash<\/em>,\u201d the former Cross River state governor reportedly said. <\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cYour population is growing at 3.2% or thereabouts and your economy is growing at 1.2 per cent, you are still in recession. For you to get out of recession, your economy must be growing faster than your population is. That is why this is not a popularity contest. This is not a game. This is serious business<\/em>.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Is Nigeria\u2019s Population Growing By 3.2%?<\/strong><\/p>\n

The population growth rate for a year ‘T’ (in this case 2016), as defined by Trading Economics,<\/a> is the exponential rate of growth of mid-year population from year ‘T-1’ (in this case 2015) to ‘T’, expressed as a percentage.<\/p>\n

Quoting the National Population Commission (NPopC), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its 2017 Demographic Statistics Bulletin<\/a> published in May 2018, put Nigeria\u2019s 2016 population estimate at a little over 193 million (193,392,517). This is an increase from the 2015 estimate of 187 million (187,301,926). This approximate increase of 6 million in the span of a year represents a 3.12% estimated population growth rate.<\/p>\n

Scaling up Donald Duke\u2019s \u201c3.2% or thereabout<\/em>\u201d mark with the above 3.12%, his figure could be said to be true.<\/p>\n

Is Nigeria\u2019s Economy Growing By 1.2%?<\/b><\/p>\n

In a World Bank Group Flagship Report<\/a> titled \u201cGlobal Economic Prospects\u201d, and published in June 2018, Nigeria\u2019s GDP growth in 2015 was 2.7%. This took a sharp plunge in 2016, reaching a low -1.6%. By 2017, the country\u2019s estimate had moved up, reaching 0.8%. The estimate for 2018 was 2.1%.<\/span><\/p>\n

A World Bank global report published in 2018 estimated Nigeria\u2019s GDP growth rate at 2.1%. <\/span><\/p>\n

DUBAWA spoke to Samuel Atiku, who is the Head of research at BUDgIT. Quoting NBS, he said that the GDP growth rate for the third quarter in 2018 was 1.8%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Every of these official figures in the recent past contradicts Duke\u2019s 1.2%.<\/span><\/p>\n

CONCLUSION<\/b><\/p>\n

Although Mr Duke got right Nigeria\u2019s population growth rate at \u201c3.2% or thereabout\u201d (the exact figure is 3.12% according to the NBS); his 1.2% economic growth rate figure is incorrect. According to the World Bank, Nigeria\u2019s GDP growth as of 2018 is 2.1%; while the NBS put it at 1.8%.<\/span><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CLAIM 1: Donald Duke, the presidential candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) said Nigeria\u2019s population growth rate is \u201c3.2% or thereabout.\u201d EVIDENCE: According to the 2017 Demographic Statistics Bulletin published in May 2018 by the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria\u2019s population growth rate is 3.12% CONCLUSION: TRUE CLAIM 2: Donald Duke, SDP presidential candidate, put Nigeria\u2019s economic growth rate at 1.2% CONCLUSION: FALSE FULL TEXT:  The question of how healthy Nigeria\u2019s economy has been under the current Buhari-led administration has been an unending one. Almost every presidential hopeful in the just-held 2019 elections has continuously harped on this question \u2013 each suggesting a way forward while also picking the holes in the economic prosperity of the country. Donald Duke, the flagbearer of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), recently waded in on the subject in question. He said in an interview with Channels TV, after the Court of Appeal declared him the candidate of the SDP in coming national elections, that Nigeria\u2019s economy is not growing at the same rate as the population growth rate. \u201cThe government says for instance that we are out of recession because the economy is growing at 1.2 or 1.3 per cent. That\u2019s hogwash,\u201d the former Cross River state governor reportedly said. \u201cYour population is growing at 3.2% or thereabouts and your economy is growing at 1.2 per cent, you are still in recession. For you to get out of recession, your economy must be growing faster than your population is. That is why this is not a popularity contest. This is not a game. This is serious business.\u201d Is Nigeria\u2019s Population Growing By 3.2%? The population growth rate for a year ‘T’ (in this case 2016), as defined by Trading Economics, is the exponential rate of growth of mid-year population from year ‘T-1’ (in this case 2015) to ‘T’, expressed as a percentage. Quoting the National Population Commission (NPopC), the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its 2017 Demographic Statistics Bulletin published in May 2018, put Nigeria\u2019s 2016 population estimate at a little over 193 million (193,392,517). This is an increase from the 2015 estimate of 187 million (187,301,926). This approximate increase of 6 million in the span of a year represents a 3.12% estimated population growth rate. Scaling up Donald Duke\u2019s \u201c3.2% or thereabout\u201d mark with the above 3.12%, his figure could be said to be true. Is Nigeria\u2019s Economy Growing By 1.2%? In a World Bank Group Flagship Report titled \u201cGlobal Economic Prospects\u201d, and published in June 2018, Nigeria\u2019s GDP growth in 2015 was 2.7%. This took a sharp plunge in 2016, reaching a low -1.6%. By 2017, the country\u2019s estimate had moved up, reaching 0.8%. The estimate for 2018 was 2.1%. A World Bank global report published in 2018 estimated Nigeria\u2019s GDP growth rate at 2.1%. DUBAWA spoke to Samuel Atiku, who is the Head of research at BUDgIT. Quoting NBS, he said that the GDP growth rate for the third quarter in 2018 was 1.8%. Every of these official figures in the recent past contradicts Duke\u2019s 1.2%. CONCLUSION Although Mr Duke got right Nigeria\u2019s population growth rate at \u201c3.2% or thereabout\u201d (the exact figure is 3.12% according to the NBS); his 1.2% economic growth rate figure is incorrect. According to the World Bank, Nigeria\u2019s GDP growth as of 2018 is 2.1%; while the NBS put it at 1.8%.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2127,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"hannibal_claim_source":"","hannibal_source_label":"","hannibal_card_color":"blue","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"","_twitter_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type":"","_pinterest_share_type":"","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_bluesky_share_type":"","_mastodon_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[16],"tags":[347],"verdict":[],"ppma_author":[880],"class_list":["post-2124","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-featured"],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8R6dE-yg","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"authors":[{"term_id":880,"user_id":0,"is_guest":1,"slug":"yusuf-akinpelu","display_name":"Yusuf Akinpelu","avatar_url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/6b809f751eeab15a98b7d6d37846ad6b403b48db479e0f0c6bc2b578721a57a3?s=96&r=g","author_category":"","user_url":"","last_name":"Akinpelu","first_name":"Yusuf","job_title":"","description":"Yusuf Akinpelu<\/strong> loves stories and he tells them for DUBAWA, having tested them against available facts. He is a graduate of Statistics from the University of Ibadan, where he won the 2019 Youth Digest Campus Journalism Award of the Best News Writer, and 2018 UCJUI Award for Campus Journalist of the year. Occasionally, he writes satires. He has interest in human rights and believes in the Nigerian Project."}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/03\/image-2-1000x600.jpg?fit=1000%2C600&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2124","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2124"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2124\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2127"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2124"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2124"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2124"},{"taxonomy":"verdict","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/verdict?post=2124"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=2124"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}