{"id":23195,"date":"2025-06-17T10:18:02","date_gmt":"2025-06-17T09:18:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/?p=23195"},"modified":"2025-06-17T10:18:04","modified_gmt":"2025-06-17T09:18:04","slug":"verifying-tinubus-claims-on-nigerias-economic-progress-in-democracy-day-address","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/verifying-tinubus-claims-on-nigerias-economic-progress-in-democracy-day-address\/","title":{"rendered":"Verifying Tinubu\u2019s claims on Nigeria\u2019s economic progress in Democracy Day address"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Full Text<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The economic policies of successive administrations have shaped Nigeria\u2019s journey since the return to civilian rule in 1999. Between then and 2023, structural reforms<\/a> introduced by the previous administrations led to inflation and fluctuations in the country’s currency value. External factors, such as oil price volatility<\/a> and global financial crises<\/a>, also influenced the situation under particular administrations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since Bola Tinubu became Nigeria\u2019s president in May 2023, his administration has pursued bold economic reforms, including removing fuel subsidies<\/a> and liberalising the foreign exchange<\/a> market. The negative impact of these policies, which contributed to a 34.8% hike in the inflation rate<\/a> as of December 2024, led many Nigerians to protest against poor governance<\/a> in August 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A year later, Mr Tinubu addressed<\/a> Nigerians at the National Assembly Joint Session on June 12, 2025, to commemorate Democracy Day. While highlighting key economic achievements<\/a> in his tenure, “GDP grew by 3.4% in 2024, with Q4 hitting 4.6%, the highest quarter of growth in over a decade. Inflation is easing gradually, steadying the price of food staples like rice and beans. Our foreign reserves have increased fivefold and the naira has stabilised.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dubawa reviewed some of the claims identified in the speech to assess their accuracy in relation to the country\u2019s economic realities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claim 1: GDP grew by 3.4% in 2024<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Verdict: TRUE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Nigeria\u2019s GDP growth<\/a> for 2024 was 3.4%, as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed. The rate was 0.66% better than the 2023 rate of 2.74%. The services sector<\/a>, which expanded by 3.27% in 2024 compared to 3.04% in 2023, played a significant role in the year-on-year growth rate recorded. Telecoms (6.25%) and financial institutions (30.89%) are identified as frontrunners within services. Agriculture and industry also contributed, though to a lesser extent, with agriculture growing by 0.18% in Q1 2024 after the previous year’s contraction. Despite this improvement, the growth rate is still below the levels seen during Nigeria\u2019s oil boom years<\/a> (2010\u20132014), when annual GDP growth often exceeded 5\u20136%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claim 2:  Q4 2024 GDP growth hit 4.6%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Verdict: FALSE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the NBS, Nigeria\u2019s real GDP<\/a> grew by 3.84% year-on-year in Q4 2024. This was the highest quarterly growth rate since Q4 2021, but it falls short of the 4.6% figure the president cited. The non-oil sector, which makes up over 95% of GDP, expanded by 3.96% in Q4 2024, driven by financial services (27.78% growth), information and communication (5.90%), and trade (1.19%). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The oil sector, in contrast, grew by only 1.48% in Q4 2024, a sharp drop from 12.11% in Q4 2023. While some smaller sectors (such as metal ores and rail transport) posted double-digit or even triple-digit growth rates, these are not representative of the overall economy<\/a>. The 4.6% figure referred to the oil sector\u2019s contribution to the real GDP, not the aggregate GDP growth for Q4 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claim 3: Q4 2024 was the highest quarter of growth in over a decade<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Verdict: FALSE<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Available facts contradict Mr. Tinubu\u2019s claim that 2024 Q4 yield a 4.6% growth rate. The accurate 3.84% growth is not the highest in over ten years.  During Muhammadu Buhari\u2019s era, the real GDP in Q4 2021<\/a> hit 3.98%, surpassing Q4 2024 by 0.14 percentage points. However, Q4 2024 outranked the challenging years between 2015 and 2020 (-1.3% in 2016<\/a> and 2.55% in 2019<\/a>). The claim overstates the historical significance of the recent quarterly performance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claim 4. Inflation is easing gradually, steadying prices of food staples like rice and beans<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Verdict: CORRECT<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation heaped pressure on Nigeria\u2019s economy throughout 2024, as headline inflation was at a three-decade-high 34.8%<\/a> in December. Food inflation, at 39.84%<\/a>, was driven by the removal of fuel subsidies, currency depreciation, and disruptions to the supply chain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the NBS rebased inflation<\/a> metrics in January 2025, dropping the rate to 24.48%. Food inflation also fell to 26.08% in January. Between February and May 2025, the inflation rate was 23.18%<\/a>, 24.23%<\/a>, 23.71%<\/a>, and 23.7%<\/a>, respectively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, findings revealed<\/a> that the price of food staples like rice and beans dropped by approximately 20% between January 2025 and March 2025. For instance, a 50kg bag of rice dropped from N95,000 in January to around N80,000 in March. Also, a bag of beans reduced from N150,000 to N80,000 within the period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While available data validate Tinubu\u2019s claim about steadying the cost of food staples, the existing reality still pales in contrast to what the administration met on board. As of April 2024, data from the NBS disclosed<\/a> that the prices had surged by 130% a year after his tenure began. One kilogram of rice rose from approximately N547 in April 2023 to N1,399 in April 2024. Garri surged from an average of N363 to N852, while beans hiked from N616 to N1,388 within the same period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Claim 5: Foreign reserves have increased fivefold<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Verdict: PARTLY CORRECT<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In April 2024, net foreign reserves<\/a> (NFER) dipped to around $32.29 billion due to high demand for foreign exchange, external debt repayments, and lower oil revenues. However, data from the Central Bank of Nigeria revealed that the gross reserves had climbed to $40.9 billion<\/a> by December 2024. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher oil production of 1.468 million barrels per day (bpd) in Q1 2025, compared to<\/a> 1.435 million bpd in Q1 2024, aided the surge. Also, non-oil exports increased, remittance inflows improved, and policy reforms attracted foreign capital. As of May 2025, Nigeria\u2019s foreign reserve stood at approximately $38.3 billion<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As of the last quarter of 2023, Nigeria\u2019s foreign reserve<\/a> was at $3.99 billion, even lower than 2022\u2019s $8.19 billion and $14.59 billion in 2021.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Full Text The economic policies of successive administrations have shaped Nigeria\u2019s journey since the return to civilian rule in 1999. Between then and 2023, structural reforms introduced by the previous administrations led to inflation and fluctuations in the country’s currency value. External factors, such as oil price volatility and global financial crises, also influenced the situation under particular administrations. Since Bola Tinubu became Nigeria\u2019s president in May 2023, his administration has pursued bold economic reforms, including removing fuel subsidies and liberalising the foreign exchange market. The negative impact of these policies, which contributed to a 34.8% hike in the inflation rate as of December 2024, led many Nigerians to protest against poor governance in August 2024. A year later, Mr Tinubu addressed Nigerians at the National Assembly Joint Session on June 12, 2025, to commemorate Democracy Day. While highlighting key economic achievements in his tenure, “GDP grew by 3.4% in 2024, with Q4 hitting 4.6%, the highest quarter of growth in over a decade. Inflation is easing gradually, steadying the price of food staples like rice and beans. Our foreign reserves have increased fivefold and the naira has stabilised.\u201d Dubawa reviewed some of the claims identified in the speech to assess their accuracy in relation to the country\u2019s economic realities. Claim 1: GDP grew by 3.4% in 2024 Verdict: TRUE Nigeria\u2019s GDP growth for 2024 was 3.4%, as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) confirmed. The rate was 0.66% better than the 2023 rate of 2.74%. The services sector, which expanded by 3.27% in 2024 compared to 3.04% in 2023, played a significant role in the year-on-year growth rate recorded. Telecoms (6.25%) and financial institutions (30.89%) are identified as frontrunners within services. Agriculture and industry also contributed, though to a lesser extent, with agriculture growing by 0.18% in Q1 2024 after the previous year’s contraction. Despite this improvement, the growth rate is still below the levels seen during Nigeria\u2019s oil boom years (2010\u20132014), when annual GDP growth often exceeded 5\u20136%.  Claim 2:  Q4 2024 GDP growth hit 4.6% Verdict: FALSE According to the NBS, Nigeria\u2019s real GDP grew by 3.84% year-on-year in Q4 2024. This was the highest quarterly growth rate since Q4 2021, but it falls short of the 4.6% figure the president cited. The non-oil sector, which makes up over 95% of GDP, expanded by 3.96% in Q4 2024, driven by financial services (27.78% growth), information and communication (5.90%), and trade (1.19%).  The oil sector, in contrast, grew by only 1.48% in Q4 2024, a sharp drop from 12.11% in Q4 2023. While some smaller sectors (such as metal ores and rail transport) posted double-digit or even triple-digit growth rates, these are not representative of the overall economy. The 4.6% figure referred to the oil sector\u2019s contribution to the real GDP, not the aggregate GDP growth for Q4 2024. Claim 3: Q4 2024 was the highest quarter of growth in over a decade Verdict: FALSE Available facts contradict Mr. Tinubu\u2019s claim that 2024 Q4 yield a 4.6% growth rate. The accurate 3.84% growth is not the highest in over ten years.  During Muhammadu Buhari\u2019s era, the real GDP in Q4 2021 hit 3.98%, surpassing Q4 2024 by 0.14 percentage points. However, Q4 2024 outranked the challenging years between 2015 and 2020 (-1.3% in 2016 and 2.55% in 2019). The claim overstates the historical significance of the recent quarterly performance. Claim 4. Inflation is easing gradually, steadying prices of food staples like rice and beans Verdict: CORRECT Inflation heaped pressure on Nigeria\u2019s economy throughout 2024, as headline inflation was at a three-decade-high 34.8% in December. Food inflation, at 39.84%, was driven by the removal of fuel subsidies, currency depreciation, and disruptions to the supply chain.  However, the NBS rebased inflation metrics in January 2025, dropping the rate to 24.48%. Food inflation also fell to 26.08% in January. Between February and May 2025, the inflation rate was 23.18%, 24.23%, 23.71%, and 23.7%, respectively.  Meanwhile, findings revealed that the price of food staples like rice and beans dropped by approximately 20% between January 2025 and March 2025. For instance, a 50kg bag of rice dropped from N95,000 in January to around N80,000 in March. Also, a bag of beans reduced from N150,000 to N80,000 within the period. While available data validate Tinubu\u2019s claim about steadying the cost of food staples, the existing reality still pales in contrast to what the administration met on board. As of April 2024, data from the NBS disclosed that the prices had surged by 130% a year after his tenure began. One kilogram of rice rose from approximately N547 in April 2023 to N1,399 in April 2024. Garri surged from an average of N363 to N852, while beans hiked from N616 to N1,388 within the same period. Claim 5: Foreign reserves have increased fivefold Verdict: PARTLY CORRECT In April 2024, net foreign reserves (NFER) dipped to around $32.29 billion due to high demand for foreign exchange, external debt repayments, and lower oil revenues. However, data from the Central Bank of Nigeria revealed that the gross reserves had climbed to $40.9 billion by December 2024.  Higher oil production of 1.468 million barrels per day (bpd) in Q1 2025, compared to 1.435 million bpd in Q1 2024, aided the surge. Also, non-oil exports increased, remittance inflows improved, and policy reforms attracted foreign capital. As of May 2025, Nigeria\u2019s foreign reserve stood at approximately $38.3 billion.  As of the last quarter of 2023, Nigeria\u2019s foreign reserve was at $3.99 billion, even lower than 2022\u2019s $8.19 billion and $14.59 billion in 2021.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":21074,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"hannibal_claim_source":"","hannibal_source_label":"","hannibal_card_color":"blue","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","_wpscppro_dont_share_socialmedia":false,"_wpscppro_custom_social_share_image":0,"_facebook_share_type":"default","_twitter_share_type":"default","_linkedin_share_type":"default","_pinterest_share_type":"default","_linkedin_share_type_page":"","_instagram_share_type":"default","_medium_share_type":"","_threads_share_type":"","_google_business_share_type":"","_bluesky_share_type":"","_mastodon_share_type":"","_selected_social_profile":[],"_wpsp_enable_custom_social_template":false,"_wpsp_social_scheduling":{"enabled":false,"datetime":null,"platforms":[],"status":"template_only","dateOption":"today","timeOption":"now","customDays":"","customHours":"","customDate":"","customTime":"","schedulingType":"absolute"},"_wpsp_active_default_template":true},"categories":[1571,120,3812,3815],"tags":[],"verdict":[],"ppma_author":[3263],"class_list":["post-23195","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-fact-check","category-economy","category-headline","category-homepage"],"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8R6dE-627","jetpack_likes_enabled":true,"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"authors":[{"term_id":3263,"user_id":0,"is_guest":1,"slug":"phillip-anjorin","display_name":"Phillip Anjorin","avatar_url":"https:\/\/secure.gravatar.com\/avatar\/98daaf5d9d7a2c5cd4ce1c417532d1cfa2ca293247710cf46a925146cc2e90e1?s=96&r=g","author_category":"","user_url":"","last_name":"","first_name":"","job_title":"","description":""}],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/Tinubu-public-health.jpg?fit=1280%2C720&ssl=1","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23195","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=23195"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23195\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":23197,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/23195\/revisions\/23197"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21074"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=23195"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=23195"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=23195"},{"taxonomy":"verdict","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/verdict?post=23195"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/dubawa.org\/dir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=23195"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}