Claim: TV presenter Rufai Oseni recently stated that the loans acquired within the first year of Mr Tinubu’s administration are more than that of former President Buhari’s Ways and Means in eight years.
Verdict: True. Before the Bola Tinubu’s administration, the total loan in the first quarter of 2023 was $49 trillion, but this has significantly increased to N121 trillion by the first quarter of 2024, representing an increase of N72 trillion while Buhari’s ways and means in eight years was N30 trillion, according to the Senate committee. However, while the naira equivalent of loans acquired under the Tinubu administration shot up, the dollar equivalent has reduced.
Full Text
President Bola Tinubu’s government has implemented many policies in one year. Some policies have significantly impacted the country’s economy, while others have generated considerable controversy. Nigerians have severely criticised the administration, particularly for the country’s rising cost of items and soaring inflation rate.
Mr Tinubu was barely hours in office when he announced the removal of the fuel subsidy. He also declared the unification of the foreign exchange platforms, among other policies that have remained the subject of intense debates online and offline.
Critics of the administration’s policies argued that Tinubu’s policies led to the shutdown of several companies in the country, with some ultimately relocating to operate in other regions.
Just recently, Aliko Dangote, the Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Dangote Group, lamented the Central Bank of Nigeria’s increase in interest rates. Mr Dangote, the second largest employer of labour in Nigeria, said the current interest rate hasn’t produced more jobs. In the run-up to his election, Mr Tinubu promised to strengthen and rebuild Nigeria’s economy. However, critics argued that the president had done otherwise a year into office.
Recently, TV presenter Oseni Rufai, in a tweet, claimed that the loan acquired by the Tinubu administration in one year exceeds former President Muhammadu Buhari’s Ways and Means in eight years.
“According to current information, president Tinubu’s one-year borrowing is larger than Buhari’s Ways and Means in 8 years,” his tweet reads.
DUBAWA observed that Rufai attributed his post to “current information” without providing the source of his data to back his claim.
Other Nigerians on Facebook and other social media platforms have also been discussing the current administration’s borrowings, as seen here, here and here.
The Debt Management Office (DMO) had earlier released data showing Nigeria’s total debt profile for Q1 2024, which has gained much traction on social media.
Concerned individuals lamented the spike in the total debt stock from N97.34 trillion in the third quarter of 2023 to N121.67 trillion in the first quarter of 2024.
For clarity, the total debt stock includes borrowings by the Federal Government, the governments of the 36 states, and the Federal Capital Territory.
Considering the public interest in the issue and its significance, DUBAWA analysed the loans acquired by the present administration from June 2023 to May 2024.
What is Ways and Means?
In February 2024, the Senate set up a nine-member ad hoc committee to probe the disbursement and usage of the Ways and Means loan obtained by Mr Buhari’s administration.
Recently, TheCable Newspaper published an exclusive report stating that the Ways and Means advance by the Central Bank of Nigeria to the former President Muhammadu Buhari’s administration was N7 trillion as against the N30 trillion reported by the Senate Joint Committee on Banking, finance, national planning, agriculture, and appropriation.
This practice was keenly contested by Isah Jibrin, the senate committee chair, who insisted that Ways and Means transfers remained N30 trillion, citing documents obtained from the CBN.
Ways and Means is a temporary loan provided by the Central Bank of Nigeria for the Federal Government “in respect of temporary deficiency of budget revenue” as stated in Section 38(1) of the CBN Act.
However, the law further stipulates that the total amount of the advance outstanding must not exceed five per cent of the previous year’s actual revenue, but this clause has been breached.
Breakdown of loan under Tinubu administration
According to data from the Debt Management Office, Nigeria’s total debt profile rose to an all-time high of N121.67 trillion in the first quarter of 2024. However, the equivalent in dollars is $91.46 billion.
The data further showed that the external debt alone is ₦56 trillion ($42 billion). However, the DMO does not provide a breakdown of external loans by the Federal Government or individual states in the first quarter. These details are only included in the second and fourth-quarter reports.
Meanwhile, the total debt stock for domestic loans stands at ₦ 65.64 trillion ($49.34 billion), with the FG bearing the greater percentage of ₦61.57 trillion ($46.29 billion), while the 36 states and FCT accrued domestic loans of ₦4 trillion ($3 billion).
In the fourth quarter of 2023, Nigeria’s total public debt stood at ₦97.34 trillion ($108.22 billion). The entire external debt totalled N38 trillion ($42.49 billion). According to this figure, the federal government’s external debt as of Q4 2023 was N34 trillion ($37.88 billion), while the state and FCT external debt was N4.1 trillion ($4.6 billion).
Nigeria’s total domestic debt as of the last quarter of 2023 was N59 trillion ($65 billion). The federal government’s domestic debt was ₦ 53 trillion ($59 billion), but States and FCT borrowed ₦ 5.8 trillion ($6.5 billion). The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Official Exchange Rate of US$1 to N899.393 as of December 31, 2023, was used to convert External Debt to Naira.
In the third quarter of 2023, the DMO documented total debt stock to be ₦87 trillion ($114 billion). Total external debt stock stood at ₦ 31.98 trillion ($41.59 billion) for FG and the states. Total domestic debt was N55.93 trillion ($72.76 billion)
The FG’s domestic debt stood at ₦ 50 trillion ($65 bn), while the States and FCT had a debt stock of ₦ 5.7 trillion ($7 billion). The CBN rate of $1 to N768.76 was used to convert external debt to Naira.
In the second quarter, which marks the beginning of President Bola Tinubu’s administration, the total debt was ₦87 trillion ($113 billion). The total external debt stock was ₦33 trillion ($43 billion). The federal government’s external debt was ₦29 trillion ($38 billion), while the external debt stock of States and FCT totalled ₦3 trillion ($4 billion).
The total domestic debt stock was ₦54 trillion ($70 billion). The FG’s share was N48 trillion ($62 billion), while that of the States and FCT was ₦5 trillion ($7 billion).
“The Domestic Debt of the FGN includes the N22.7 trillion Ways and Means Advances at the CBN for which the approval of the National Assembly (NASS) to securitise it was received in May 2023,” the DMO clarified.
For this quarter, a CBN exchange rate of $1 to N770.38 was used to convert external debt to Naira.
Data released by the DMO towards the end of Mr Buhari’s administration in March 2023 (Q1 2023) showed that the total debt stock was ₦49 trillion ($108 billion). Total foreign debt was ₦19 trillion ($42 billion), while domestic debt stood at ₦30 trillion ($65 billion). Of this figure, FG domestic debt was ₦24 trillion ($53 billion), while that of States & FCT was ₦5 trillion ($11 billion).
The above figure shows that the debt profile increased in naira terms from N49 trillion in Q1 2023 to N121 trillion in Q1 2024. However, there was a significant decrease in dollar terms, from $108 billion in Q1 2023 to $91 billion in Q1 2024.
DUBAWA observed that the DMO usually notes the specific exchange rate used in each of its quarterly reports.
Loans acquired during Buhari’s first year in office
Meanwhile, DUBAWA analysed Nigeria’s debt stock within one year of Tinubu’s predecessor, former President Muhammadu Buhari, sworn in on May 29, 2015.
Before that, Nigeria’s total debt stock as of Q1 2015 was N12.06 trillion ($63.5 billion); total external debt (Federal Government, States, and FCT) stood at N1.8 trillion, with the dollar equivalent of $9.4 billion. The Federal Government’s domestic debt for the same quarter was N8.5 trillion ($43 billion).
CBN’s official exchange rate of $1 to N 197 as of March 2015 and N155 as of Q4 2013 was used.
The domestic debt stock of the States and FCT in both Q1 and Q2 2015 is peculiar, as figures reported by the DMO only reflected actual domestic debt for 35 states and estimated domestic debt for Bayelsa state as of Q4 2013. The domestic debt profile of states and FCT was reported to be N1.6 trillion ($10 billion).
In Q2 2015, which marked the beginning of the Buhari administration, Nigeria’s total debt was reported at N12.12 trillion ($63.8 billion). Total external debt stood at N 2 trillion ($10.3 billion). The federal government’s domestic debt stock was N8.3 trillion ($42.6 billion).
Nigeria’s total debt profile for Q3 2015 was N12.3 trillion ($64 billion). Total external debt stock was N2 trillion ($10.6 billion). The federal government’s domestic debt was N8.6 trillion ($43.7 billion). The actual domestic debt of 36 states and FCT reported in this quarter was noted to be that of Q4 2014 at N1.65 trillion ($9.8 billion).
In Q4 2015, Nigeria’s total debt profile was N12.6 trillion ($65.4 billion), with an external debt stock of N2.11 trillion ($10.7 billion). The federal government’s domestic debt is N8.8 trillion ($44.8 billion), while the domestic debt data of the states and FCT reflected the data of Q4 2014, as stated above.
By Q1 2016, the country’s total debt stock had climbed to N13.8 trillion ($71.6 billion); the external debt stock of the FGN and states stood at N2.2 trillion ($11 billion). The domestic debt stock of the FG was N9.97 trillion ($50.6 billion).
From Q1 2015 to Q1 2016, the CBN official exchange rate fluctuated between $1 to N 197 and $1 to N196.95.
Table showing Nigeria’s total public debt profile in Q1 2023 & 2015
| Q1 2023 | Q1 2015 | ||||
| N | $ | N | $ | ||
| Total External | N 19 trillion | $42 billion | Total External | N1.8 trillion | $9.4 billion |
| Domestic | N30 trillion | $ 65 billion | Domestic | – | – |
| FGN (domestic) | N24 trillion | $53 billion | FGN (domestic) | N8.5 trillion | $43 billion |
| States & FCT (domestic) | N5 trillion | $ 11 billion | States and FCT(Domestic) | N1.6 trillion | $10 billion |
| CUM Total | N49 trillion | $108 billion | CUM Total | N12.06 trillion | $63.05 billion |
Table showing Nigeria’s total public debt profile in Q1 2024 & 2016
| Q1 2024 | Q1 2016 | |||
| N | $ | N | $ | |
| EXTERNAL | N56 trillion | $42 billion | N2.2 trillion | $65.4 billion |
| DOMESTIC | N65 trillion | $49 billion | – | – |
| FGN (domestic) | N61 trillion | $46 billion | N9.7 trillion | $50.6 billion |
| States & FCT (domestic) | N4 trillion | $3 billion | N1.65 trillion(2014) | $9.8 billion (2014) |
| CUM Total | N121.67 trillion | $91 billion | N13 trillion | $71.6 billion |
Comparatively, while the total debt stock within one year of Mr Buhari’s administration increased significantly in dollar and naira terms from N12.06 trillion ($63.05 billion) in Q1 2015 to N13 trillion ($71.6 billion) in Q1 2016, debt stock under Mr Tinubu within one year reduced in dollar terms from $108 billion debt profile in Q1 2023 to $91 billion in Q1 2024, while the naira equivalent was N121.67 trillion.
Conclusion
Nigeria’s total debt stock under Tinubu’s administration in one year has increased significantly by N72 trillion, more than the N30 trillion ways and means recorded under Mr Buhari’s administration within the same time frame. However, the country’s total debt stock in dollar terms has been reducing under Mr. Tinubu’s administration.
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