True! Nigeria generated 5000MW electricity capacity, first time in three years

Claim: Nigeria’s Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, claimed that Nigeria generated 5000MW of electricity capacity for the first time in three years on May 3, 2024.

Verdict: True! Available data showed that Nigeria last generated 5000MW of power in December 2021 and then on May 3, 2024, when it generated 5003.45MW.

Full Text

Nigeria has for many years battled epileptic power supply, with power generation usually dangling between 3500MW and 4,500MW.

With President Bola Tinubu’s administration coming into power in May 2023, expectations were high that power generation in the country would improve, as promised by the President. After he was sworn in, Tinubu said, “Electricity will become more accessible and affordable to businesses and homes alike. Power generation should nearly double, and transmission and distribution networks should be improved. We will encourage states to develop local sources as well.”

The Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, had on April 22, 2024, during an oversight visit of the Senate Committee on Power to the Ministry of Power and the TCN in Abuja, said that the Federal Government had concluded plans to ramp up power generation to a target of 6,000 Mega Watts from 4,000MW by the end of 2024, adding that a 10-12,000MW transmission capacity has been set for the next three years. 

In April, some Nigerians called for the sack of the Minister over his comment that Nigerians were responsible for persistent power blackouts in the country, insinuating that citizens take advantage of cheap power supply. 

Meanwhile, during the ministerial sectoral update for the present administration in May, Adelabu claimed that Nigeria achieved 5000MW power generation for the first time in three years.

The Minister said, “When it comes to generation capacity, 5000 megawatts (MW) of power was achieved in May 2024 for the first time in 3 years.

“Exactly 3rd of May 2024, we generated, transmitted, and distributed 5003.45MW of power while we normally generated below 4,000MW before.”

In the comment section of the YouTube video of the Minister speaking on Channels TV, some Nigerians believed the Minister lied; others criticised him for celebrating 5000MW in a country of about 200 million people, while some further called for his sack.

@Folushoadeniyi said, “APC and lies together forever.” @JosephSuberu said, “This man should be fired…. every time he is threatening Nigerians with increases in prices.” @onyekachioyian560 commented, “How can we celebrate 5000MW? When we have idle generation plants above 12000MW, What’s wrong with our so-called technocrat?

DUBAWA conducted a fact-check on the claim of the Minister of Power to set the record straight.

Verification

DUBAWA retrieved operational reports from the National Energy System Operator (NESO) website. NESO is a semi-autonomous sector under the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN). It updates its website with daily power generation capacity.

The Operational Report of May 4, 2024, retrieved from NESO, revealed that Nigeria’s Peak Generation on May 3, 2024, was 5003.45MW. The Lowest Generation for the same day was 3569.09MW.

To confirm if it was the first time Nigeria generated 5000MW power capacity in three years, DUBAWA visited the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) website to retrieve power performance reports. NERC is an independent regulatory body with the authority to regulate the electric power industry in Nigeria. 

The First Quarter 2022 Report of NERC showed that Nigeria’s available power generation capacity in the First Quarter of 2022 decreased to 4,712.34MW from 5,465.72MW in the Fourth Quarter of 2021. This indicated earlier power generation above 5,000MW was in the last quarter of 2021.

The Second Quarter 2022 Report of NERC showed that power generation averaged  4,508.38MW, 4,341.87MW in the third quarter, and 4,503.59MW in the fourth quarter. NERC added, “It is noteworthy that since the second half of 2022, the grid recorded its highest average monthly available generation (4,740.34MW) in December 2022.”

In 2023, an average available capacity of 4,605.72MW was generated in the first quarter, 4,387.91MW in the second quarter, 4,211.44MW in the third quarter, and 4,922.26MW in the fourth quarter. The quarterly available power generation capacity since the last quarter of 2021 is presented in the table below:

Quarter	Average Power Generation Capacity
2021 Q/4	5,465.72MW
2022 Q/1	4,712.34MW
2022 Q/2	4,508.38MW
2022 Q/3	4,341.87MW
2022 Q/4	4,503.59MW
2023 Q/1	4,605.72MW
2023 Q/2	4,387.91MW
2023 Q/3	4,211.44MW
2023 Q/4	4,922.26MW

A May 7, 2024, report by Vanguard, citing NERC, showed that the available power capacity was 4,459.41MW in January, 3,957.16MW in February, and 4,338.88MW in March 2024.

Daily operational reports from NESO also confirmed that Nigeria generated below 5000MW at peak power generation before May 3, 2024. For instance, the Operational Report of March 31, 2024, showed Peak Generation on March 30 at 4518.46MW. Peak Generation on February 28, 2024, was 4178.89MW, while that of January 30, 2024, was 4425MW.

Conclusion

Available data confirm that the Nigerian Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu’s claim that the country generated 5,000MW power capacity for the first time in three years is true. The last time Nigeria generated 5,000MW of power capacity was in the fourth quarter of 2021 at an average of 5,465.72MW.

This report is produced for the DUBAWA 2024 Kwame Karikari Fact-Checking Fellowship in partnership with The Hope Newspaper to facilitate the ethos of truth in journalism and enhance media literacy in Nigeria.