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Momentum toward Nigeria’s 2027 general election is surging, with opposition figures ramping up grassroots mobilisation and challenging the electoral framework ahead of another contest against the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Victor Umeh, senator representing Anambra Central district and a key leader for the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) presidential campaign, appeared as a guest on Channels Television’s Politics Today programme.
Speaking on the broadcast aired on Sept. 11, 2026, he addressed critical questions surrounding Peter Obi’s presidential candidacy, electoral law reforms, and party polling networks.
Umeh, who once served as the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA)’s national chairman, defended the opposition coalition’s viability while critiquing the Independent National Electoral Commission’s (INEC) readiness and technology integration.
DUBAWA identified some key claims he made during the interview and verified their accuracy.
Claim 1: Peter Obi scored 25% of the vote in over 20 states and won 12 states outright.
Quote: “I remember that the governor of my state said he [Peter Obi] will not get 25% in more than one state. So he was considering that he may get 25% in only Anambra State. But he stunned everybody; he scored 25% in over 20 states and won 12 states outright. So, with that first performance, I’m sure his opponents are rattled now…”
Verdict: MISLEADING. While the claim that Peter Obi won 12 states outright is accurate, the claim that he secured 25% of the vote in “over 20 states” exaggerates the official results.
According to certified state-by-state election figures released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) for the 2023 presidential election, Obi outrightly won 11 states and the FCT. In addition to the five south-eastern states, he also triumphed in Edo, Cross River, Delta, Lagos, Plateau, Nasarawa, and the FCT.
However, Obi only attained the 25% threshold, as stipulated under Section 134 of the 1999 Constitution, in 17 states (16 states and the FCT), not “over 20 states,” as Umeh claimed. In Akwa Ibom, the lowest on the list, Obi pulled 25.76%.
Chart showing the 17 states where Peter Obi scored over 25%. Designed by Phillip Anjorin
He scored less than 25% in 18 states, and in only six of them did he reach double figures. The rest were below 9%, including four where he scored less than 1%.
Claim 2: Governor Charles Soludo predicted before the election that Peter Obi would not score 25% in more than one state (only in Anambra State).
Quote: “I remember that the governor of my state said [Peter Obi] will not get 25% in more than one state. So he was considering that he may get 25% in only Anambra State…”
Verdict: FALSE. Charles Soludo, Anambra State’s governor, evaluated Obi’s chances at the 2023 election in a viral long-form article published on Nov. 14, 2022. Regarding his predecessor’s performance projections, Soludo wrote, “Of course, Peter Obi will get some votes, and may probably win in Anambra State—as ‘home boy’. But Anambra is not Nigeria. If he likes, I can even campaign for him, but that won’t change much.”
On the 25% constitutional benchmark statement, he wrote, “From internal state-by-state polling available to me, he was on course to get 25 per cent in five states as of August this year. The latest polling shows that it is down to four states, and declining.”
While Soludo criticised Obi’s political strategy and structure, he conceded that Obi was projected to score 25% in four states (down from five). Contrary to Umeh’s claim, Soludo, a one-time governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), did not limit his predecessor’s projection to “only Anambra State” or “not in more than one state.”
Claim 3: Peter Obi obtained 25% threshold results in Northern states, including Adamawa and the FCT
Quote: “In northern Nigeria, Peter Obi won some states and got a consequential 25% victory in a place like Adamawa State, you know… FCT is in northern Nigeria.”
Verdict: PARTLY TRUE. According to certified state-level results released by INEC, Obi won convincingly at the capital. The FCT was one of five northern territories where Obi received 25% of the valid votes cast, but Adamawa was not one of them. The others were Plateau, Benue, Taraba, and Nasarawa states.
Out of 460,071 valid votes recorded across the FCT, Obi polled 281,717 (61.2%) of the total valid votes cast. This outcome exceeded the 25% constitutional benchmark and defeated his closest rivals. Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the election’s eventual winner, received 90,902 votes (19.76%), while Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), polled 74,194 votes (16.13%).
In Adamawa State, Atiku’s home state, a total of 731,140 valid votes were recorded. Atiku won the state with 417,611 votes (57.12%), while Tinubu placed second, securing the 25% threshold with 182,881 votes (25.01%). Obi only polled 105,648 votes, which represents 14.45% of the total valid votes.
Claim 4: Peter Obi defeated Bola Tinubu in Lagos State
Quote: “Regarding the President’s political sagacity in Lagos, where he governed for eight years—Peter Obi defeated him in Lagos in 2023. Does that not put to rest the argument that someone is invincible? [Tinubu] didn’t win the declared votes in Lagos.”
Verdict: TRUE. Official certified election returns declared by the Lagos State’s collation officer, Nnenna Oti, confirmed an upset victory for Peter Obi. Out of a total of 1,271,451 valid votes recorded, Obi polled 582,454 votes (45.8%). Tinubu, despite governing the state between 1999 and 2007, polled only 572,606 votes (45.04%), while Atiku received 75,750 votes (5.96%).