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Ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general election, major opposition figures have begun aligning forces to build a united front against Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).
Donald Duke, a former governor of Cross River State and presidential flagbearer for the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), featured as a guest on Channels Television’s Politics Today, hosted by Seun Okinbaloye.
Speaking on behalf of the G100 opposition coalition, Duke discussed critical national issues, ranging from political party alliances and economic reforms to national security and his own track record in governance.
On the programme aired on Sept. 1, 2026, Duke addressed opposition strategies to unseat the incumbent, his stance on fuel subsidies and interest rates, and the economic performance of his past administration in Cross River State.
DUBAWA identified some claims Mr Duke made during the interview and fact-checked them.
Claim 1: Bola Tinubu won the 2023 election with roughly 36%–37% of the total votes cast
Quote: “Last [election] he had about 36, 37%, right? So, that scenario may replay itself.
Verdict: TRUE. Official certified results released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) revealed that Mr Tinubu polled 8,794,726 votes out of 24,020,940 total votes cast at the 2023 presidential election.
Rounded up, he received about 37% of the total votes. His closest competitor, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), received 29.07% (6,984,520). Other candidates were Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), who got 6,101,533 (25.40%), and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), who gathered 1,496,687 (6.23%).
Claim 2: Tinubu-led APC lost the recent election in Osun State
Quote: “He [Tinubu] just lost one [election]… Osun”
Verdict: TRUE. In the 2026 Osun governorship election, Ademola Adeleke, the candidate representing the Accord Party, secured re-election with 511,067 votes. He defeated Bola Oyebamiji, his APC opponent, who received 444,815 votes. Tinubu himself lost Osun State during the 2023 presidential election, as he polled 343,945 votes against Atiku’s 354,366 votes.
Claim 3: Nigeria’s population quadrupled while federal spending remained static at “$25 billion”
Quote: “For instance, in 1980, during the Second Republic, the four years that President Shagari was president, his average budget was $25 billion. Our population was, in the mid-70s, millions. Today, it’s quadrupled, and we’re still spending around $25 billion, 46 years after.”
Verdict: MISLEADING. Nigeria’s population in 1980 stood at about 73.4 million, while estimates for 2026 put the number at over 240 million. While it is not the focus of his claim, saying that the population has quadrupled is an exaggeration.
Meanwhile, Duke’s claim about federal spending is less than recent federal budgets under the Tinubu-led administration when converted to higher dollar values at official budget exchange rates. For example, Nigeria’s 2024 budget (N28.7 trillion) was valued at approximately $34 billion, while the approved expanded 2026 budget (N68.3 trillion) converts to roughly $48.8 billion. At an official benchmark rate of N1,400/$, the budget nearly doubles Duke’s $25 billion baseline figure.
However, the verdict will likely change if his claim rests solely on federal spending, given the limited evidence. Official budget implementation reports showed that federal expenditure rose to N34.49 trillion ($24.6 billion) in 2024, compared to N23.04 trillion ($36 billion) the preceding fiscal year. The audited report for the 2025 fiscal year is not yet available as of Sept 8, 2026. Available data indicate that only 2024 expenditure comes anywhere close to Duke’s claim.
Also, comparing unadjusted nominal dollar values from 1980 to current spending distorts the economic reality. Accounting for over 45 years of US dollar inflation, a $25 billion budget in 1980 had the purchasing power of over $101.3 billion today. With a cumulative price change of about a 305.24% hike, a direct dollar-for-dollar comparison between the two eras is economically misleading.
Claim 4: The federal government borrows three-quarters of its funding to finance the budget
Quote: “[The economy] is in ICU. No question about it. If you have to borrow three quarters of your funding to fund the budget, then you have a problem.”
Verdict: MISLEADING. In recent fiscal years, the federal government’s budget deficit (the portion financed through borrowing) ranged from 35% to 55% of total budget expenditure. The current administration’s first budget in 2024 reached an actual expenditure of approximately N34.49 trillion. With a N13.51 trillion deficit, borrowing funded about 35.3% of that budget. Fiscal projections for 2025 also indicated aggregate revenue of N48.97 trillion against an approved expenditure of N34.35 trillion. However, mid-year actual revenue recorded a N4 trillion shortfall, while debt servicing exceeded targets.
Duke seems to have conflated the deficit-to-expenditure ratio with the deficit-to-revenue ratio. While his data may be exaggerated, Nigeria clearly faces severe debt-sustainability challenges and relies heavily on borrowing to fund capital projects.
Claim 5: Currency devaluation (over 100%) and fuel price increases shrank the Nigerian economy by 50%
Quote: “You make sudden pronouncements that thoroughly crash your economy. You devalue your currency by over 100% or thereabouts. Increase the price of fuel without thinking of the blowback that you’ll get from it. Then the economy crashes. If you were at 100, it drops to about 50. Then you grow at 4% and say you’re growing. You’re not growing. You’re not even where you were before.”
Verdict: INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE. Nigeria’s economy did not contract by 50% following the May 2023 policy changes, when measured by actual domestic production of goods and services, adjusted for inflation. Official reports from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that Nigeria maintained positive real economic growth. The Bureau reported a real GDP growth rate of 2.74% in the last quarter of 2023. The growth continued to 3.38% in 2024 and 3.87% the following year.
The exchange rate plummeted from roughly N460/$ in May 2023 to over N1,400/$ in May 2024, which severely eroded consumer purchasing power and domestic living standards. However, there is no concrete evidence to verify if the economy shrank by 50% as claimed.
Claim 6: Nigerian bank interest rates were below 10% in the late 1970s
Quote: “Yes, but we in—in the late ’70s, it was sub-10. That’s when we really had a boom.”
Verdict: TRUE. Commercial lending rates in Nigeria were officially capped, averaging between 6% and 9% throughout the 1970s (reaching a low of 6% in 1977).
Claim 7: Margaret Ekpo International Airport in Calabar became Nigeria’s fourth-busiest airport under Duke’s administration.
Quote: “We became the fourth busiest airport in Nigeria: Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt, Calabar. We had nine flights in and out of Calabar a day.”
Verdict: FALSE. Available data showed that passenger traffic at Calabar Airport increased from 136,153 in 2005 to 167,767 in 2006. Towards the end of Duke’s tenure as Cross River’s state governor in 2007, the airport’s passenger
traffic had reached 207,542. Spreadsheet showing passenger traffic between 2005 and 2006. Source: Nairametrics.
However, we found that four Nigerian airports had more passenger traffic than Calabar within the period. Murtala Muhammed International Airport in Lagos, the busiest in the country to date, recorded about 3.8 million passengers in 2005, 3.84 million in 2006, and about 4.1 million the following year. The second-busiest, Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport in Abuja, recorded around 2.1 million passengers in 2005, 2 million in 2006, and 2.1 million in 2007. Port Harcourt International Airport did not record a million passengers during Duke’s tenure, but it still outranked Calabar Airport. About 917,151 passengers used the airport in 2005, while it recorded 679,282 up to August 2006. Afterwards, traffic dropped till December 2007 due to runway closures for repairs, when it recorded 5,494.
Mallam Aminu Kano International Airport in Kano State recorded about 302,017 passengers in 2005, 327,679 in 2006, and approximately 373,657 in 2007.
Spreadsheet showing passenger traffic between 2006 and 2007. Source: Nairametrics.
Scheduled commercial flights into Calabar spiked during peak seasonal events such as the annual December Calabar Carnival, but there is no sufficient evidence to confirm that routine operations averaged nine flights daily year-round during his administration.
Claim 8: Cross River was the only Nigerian state operating internal intrastate commercial flights during his administration
Quote: “We were the only state that had internal flights between Calabar and Obudu. The traffic was there.”
Verdict: TRUE. In the early 2000s, the Duke-led administration constructed and commissioned the Bebi Airstrip in Obanliku LGA, located near the Obudu Mountain Resort (formerly Obudu Cattle Ranch). It was designed to eliminate the 6- to 7-hour road journey from Calabar to the plateau.
Around 2004, the state government partnered with regional operators like Capital Airlines and Aero Contractors to launch scheduled domestic shuttles. These flights connected the Margaret Ekpo International Airport in Calabar to the Bebi Airstrip. A flight between the two locations took about 35 minutes. At the time, all other state-level commercial air routes simply linked state capitals directly to national aviation hubs in Lagos, Abuja, Kano or Port Harcourt.
Ben Ayade, the state’s immediate past governor, afterwards renamed the airstrip after Duke on May 28, 2017, in honour of his contribution to the state’s development.
Claim 9: Phase 1 of the Tinapa Business Resort was fully commissioned one month before Duke left office in May 2007
Quote: “Well, to the extent that [Tinapa] was commissioned a month before I left office, it was successful, right?”
Verdict: TRUE. Olusegun Obasanjo, Nigeria’s then-president, officially commissioned the first phase of the $350 million Tinapa Business Resort & Free Zone in Calabar on Apr. 2, 2007. A month later, Duke completed his second term as governor of the state and handed over the top seat to Liyel Imoke on May 29, 2007.