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Two months after the Edo State off-cycle election, attention has turned to the upcoming Ondo election, scheduled for Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024.
This election will see 17 candidates, including the incumbent state governor, Lucky Aiyedatiwa, scramble for the top political seat in the southwestern state. In the off-cycle election build-up, mis and disinformation have become the order of the day, with the sitting governor, Mr Aiyedatiwa, being a primary target in the last two months.
DUBAWA examined suspected disinformation to track and curb the spread of false narratives during pre-election, election, and post-election periods.
Facebook, a primary platform for disinformation
Ahead of the Ondo State election, DUBAWA noticed that social media users, especially on Meta’s parent application, Facebook, have continued to promote misinformation targeted at the incumbent state governor, Mr Aiyedatiwa, who is also contesting at the state polls.
The content of such posts has been recycled to malign the governor, who took over office on Dec. 27, 2023, after the death of his principal, Rotimi Akeredolu.
One such misinforming post intended to smear Aiyedatiwa is the claim about flood overruning the Ore bridge along the Sagamu-Benin express road.
In October, DUBAWA noticed that several Facebook users, as seen here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, here, and here, posted a video that shows a flood that has overrun the commercial bridge that connects Sagamu in Ogun State with Benin in Edo State. A part of the post shows motorists and passengers visibly lamenting and voicing their grudges against the government for failing to construct the frequently-plied route despite its age-long dilapidating condition.
However, DUBAWA’s investigations revealed that the incident was not recent. We conducted a Google Reverse Image Search and discovered that the incident had been posted sometime in August 2023, as seen here and here.
Both story accounts show a similar narrative to the ones presented by the claimants in October 2024, except that the initial time the incident happened was in August 2023. Moreover, to further underscore DUBAWA’s perception that the recycled posts are intended to influence election decisions, the Ondo State Police Public Relations Officer, Funmilayo Odunlami, cautioned the public against fake narratives via video ahead of the election.
Significantly, DUBAWA discovered in the engagement statistics that more Facebook users decided to repost the post within Facebook, leading to a larger proliferation of the post on the Meta parent app than any other social media platform. Moreover, the statistical data implies that the average user reporting was more interested in the post’s public outreach than in public reaction.
This is because, compared to the highest number of likes (112) and reposts (261), only one comment was made in reaction to the post.
Interestingly, before the primary election on Apr. 20, 2024, a group within the party had accused Aiyedatiwa of producing fake membership cards to secure victory in the primary election, Punch reported.
Barely two weeks after the flood claim was refuted, another video circulated on Facebook claiming Mr Aiyedatiwa was involved in a dating scandal in London.
In the video, a middle-aged man tries to scurry away from a provoked and incensed small group of women as one of them attempts to restrain the unidentified man from leaving. Amidst the heated scuffle, both disagreeing parties endlessly exchange words that are highly suggestive of extramarital affairs.
The claimant alleged that the man accused of engaging in extramarital affairs in the video is Ondo State’s current governor. It is also important to know that along with the footage was the text caption, “This is the Ondo State governor in London, having a real brawl with a side chic! What a shame?…”
DUBAWA surveyed the comments made in reaction to the post and noticed a majority either talked about how the alleged governor’s extramarital affairs involvement was a deliberate set-up for the gubernatorial candidate or how he could not get away with such an act in London.
The video was posted more than once on Facebook, as seen here, here, and here, and attracted a good deal of social media engagement. Significantly, all the posts were uploaded between Oct. 12 and 13, 2024, a month and a few days before the Ondo State election.
DUBAWA fact-checked the video and noticed that despite the striking resemblance between the man in the video and Aiyedatiwa, there were also irrefutable dissimilarities in body features between the duo. Besides, the Special Assistant on New Media, Sunday Abire, mentioned that the state governor had not left the country’s shores since he was sworn into office on Dec. 27, 2024.
WhatsApp is also a culprit
DUBAWA noticed that the Ondo State governor was a target of false narratives via WhatsApp in September and early October. According to a viral WhatsApp message, Mr Aiyedatiwa intends to increase the prices of tertiary institutions in Ondo State after the gubernatorial elections in November.
The message further detailed that the governor has succeeded in increasing the Ondo State School of Health Technology’s tertiary fees from N40,000 to N150,000 and intends to do the same for Adekunle Ajasin University, Akungba, from N150,000 to N450,000.
“SCHOOL FEES HIKE: Gov Ayedatiwa Sets to increase Tertiary Institution FEEs in Ondo State immediately after Nov 16 Election, succeeded in hiking school fees of Ondo state Health, Technology Akure from 40,000 To 150,000.” Part of the viral post reads.
“Target: Adekunle Ajasin University, Akungba from 150k.-450k. Unimed from 250k -800k. ONDO STATE PEOPLE PLEASE SHINE YOUR EYES OO,” the message reads.
We discovered that this claim also made it to Facebook, as seen here, here, and here. A quick look at the comment section showed that more individuals believed the post and thought Mr Aiyedatiwa’s government was not fit to govern Ondo State.
Africa Check conducted a fact check on the claim and found no substantial proof. The organisation also contacted the Ondo State Commissioner for Information and Orientation, Wale Akinlosotu, who told the fact-checking outlet that the claim is false and that the state government has not decided to increase tertiary fees in state-owned universities.
Trend Analysis
DUBAWA noticed that most pages spreading this misinformation have a large followership on the Meta parent App and could pass for influencers.
We also observed that most Facebook users greatly utilised the repost feature, showing more preference for gaining online traffic than for information veracity. This also implies that the Meta parent App has become a fertile ground for breeding misinformation and disinformation.
Furthermore, the “like” and “share” features have been constantly utilised compared to using the “comment” feature.
DUBAWA also discovered video and text-based claims were the common forms of false news. Notably, these claims did not appear only on Facebook, as they were found on X ( here and here), Instagram (here and here), and YouTube (here and here).
Conclusion
Our research shows that Facebook has become a major hub for spreading disinformation ahead of the #2024EdoElection, with Governor Aiyedatiwa as the primary target.
