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A recent report released by the International Monetary Fund placed Nigeria among the top 10 contributors to global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in 2026.
According to the IMF projection, Nigeria ranked among the top countries expected to drive global output growth in 2026, with a 1.5% contribution to global GDP.
With this new projection, Nigeria surpasses South Africa as Africa’s leading contributor to global GDP in 2026, even though South Africa has the largest nominal GDP. By this IMF projection, Nigeria’s real GDP is expected to grow by 4.4% in 2026, up from 4.2% in 2025, and South Africa’s projected real GDP growth is projected to be at 1.4% from 1.2% in 2025.
At the top of the list was China, expected to account for 26.6% of global growth, followed by India at 17.0%. The United States came third with 9.9%.
Other countries include Indonesia (3.8%), Turkiye (2.2%), Saudi Arabia (1.7%), Vietnam (1.6%), Nigeria and Brazil (1.5% each), and Germany (0.9%).
Together, China and India are projected to account for almost half (43.6%) of global economic growth in 2026. The IMF projected higher real GDP growth for Emerging and Developing Asia.
Overall, the global growth forecast is 3.3% for 2026, while emerging and developing Asia is expected to grow at a real GDP rate of 5.0% in 2026.
Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow by 4.6% in 2026, an increase from 4.4% in 2025. According to the IMF, this growth is attributable to commodity exports, macroeconomic stabilisation efforts, and ongoing structural reforms in some economies on the continent.
What does this mean for Nigerians?
While macroeconomic indicators show improvement, they do not translate into improvements at the grassroots level, as people still grapple with high inflation and structural constraints.
In a report, the World Bank highlights that although Nigeria has made substantial progress in macroeconomic stabilisation, these gains have not substantially improved the livelihoods of average Nigerians.
A recent report from PwC projected a 62% rise in the poverty rate by 2026, with about 141 million Nigerians expected to be living below the poverty line.
It added that about 33.1 million Nigerians may face food insecurity in 2026 due to economic hardship and violence in northern food-producing regions.
Conclusion
The recent IMF projection, which places Nigeria among the major contributors to global real GDP, may have attracted praise for certain economic policies introduced by the current administration. However, these macroeconomic gains must be reflected at the household level, as many citizens continue to face economic hardship.
