Abubakar Kyari. Source: Premium Times.
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On Mar. 6, 2026, Nigeria’s Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari, stated that the prices of essential food commodities have dropped by 50% nationwide. He said the current food prices contrast sharply with those in previous years, when food prices skyrocketed beyond what most Nigerians could afford.
This statement elicited different reactions from Nigerians, who questioned whether the prices were truly reflected in local markets or were just random figures thrown around by political leaders.
An Instagram user @joshua_ekwueme noted, “Failed government with their lies.” Another user, @tek.myke quipped, “Please, how much is a bag of rice in your area?… Is it 30k per bag?”
DUBAWA dug into the National Bureau of Statistics’ (NBS) data repository to examine and set the records straight.
The Selected Food Prices Watch released by the NBS for January 2026 indeed showed a 10.94% decline in the price of locally produced rice (1kg) compared to the same commodity in January 2025. On a month-on-month basis, rice prices also decreased by 0.18% from December 2025.
On a year-on-year basis, there was a 48.65% decrease in the price of 1kg of brown beans compared to January 2025, a 39.10% decrease in the price of 1kg of Garri (Cassava Flour), a 5.36% reduction in the price of 2kg of wheat flour, and 17.87% decrease in the price of onion (1kg).
| Food Items (1kg) | January 2026 | January 2025 | % change (year-on-year) |
| Rice | ₦1,841.83 | ₦2,068.00 | 10.94% |
| Beans | ₦1,262.43 | ₦2,458.53 | 48.65% |
| Garri | ₦771.98 | ₦1,267.63 | 39.10% |
| Wheat (2kg) | ₦3, 641.16 | ₦3,847.37 | 5.36% |
| Onion | ₦1,123.26 | ₦1,367.62 | 17.87% |
| Yam | ₦2,065.76 | ₦1,991.33 | +3.74% |
While this may be commendable, DUBAWA examined data from January 2025 and found that President Tinubu’s economic policies led to a 151.75% year-on-year increase in bean prices from January 2024. Further checks showed that 1kg of yam tuber also experienced a significant year-on-year increase of 120.78% within the same period. Other major staples mentioned in the NBS data summary also saw significant price increases.
| Food Items (1kg) | January 2025 | January 2024 | % change (year-on-year) |
| Rice | ₦2,068.00 | ₦1,021 | + 102.39% |
| Beans | ₦2,458.53 | ₦976.58 | +151.75% |
| Garri | ₦1,267.63 | ₦600.69 | +111.03% |
| Wheat (2kg) | ₦3,847.37 | ₦2,042.98 | +88.32% |
| Onion | ₦1,367.62 | ₦881.20 | +55.20% |
| Yam | ₦1,991.33 | ₦901.94 | 120.78% |
Source: NBS
The foregoing shows that the Tinubu-led administration is simply trying to reduce the price hike caused by its policies.
For instance, DUBAWA observed that by January 2024, about 7 months after President Bola Tinubu assumed office, there were also significant price increases in food items nationwide compared to the previous year.
In January 2024, the NBS recorded a 98.47% increase in the price of 1kg of local rice from N514.83 in January 2023 to N1,021.79 in January 2024. The average price of 1kg of brown beans also increased year on year by 64.42%, from N593.96 in January 2023 to N976.58 in January 2024.
| Food Items (1kg) | January 2024 | January 2023 | % change (year-on-year) |
| Rice | ₦1,021 | ₦514.83 | + 98.47% |
| Beans | ₦976.58 | ₦593.96 | +64.42% |
| Garri | ₦600.69 | ₦337.52 | +77.97% |
| Wheat (2kg) | ₦2,042.98 | ₦1,236.31 | +65.25% |
| Onion | ₦881.20 | ₦446.44 | +97.38% |
| Yam | ₦901.94 | ₦431.36 | 109.09% |
A careful review of the data repository showed that while food prices were already rising before the Tinubu administration, there was a surge post-2023, which could be attributed to major economic reforms introduced by the current government, including the removal of subsidies and the unification of Nigeria’s foreign exchange market.
Experts share insights
Reflecting on DUBAWA’s findings, economic analyst Dave Ibemere said that while many families in Nigeria may be experiencing relief from the rising cost of food following the recent drop in inflation, the figures present a cautiously optimistic picture.
He noted that Nigeria’s exposure to energy-driven inflation also means that recent increases in petrol prices could quickly reverse these gains, as higher transport costs feed into food distribution and pricing.
“In addition, ongoing insecurity in key food-producing areas continues to disrupt farming activities and supply chains, making it difficult to achieve a lasting reduction in food prices for Nigerians,” he said.
Similarly, a public policy analyst, Ambrose Igbokwe, told DUBAWA that the astronomical increase in food prices was caused by policies introduced by President Tinubu’s administration, particularly the removal of subsidies, which shifted costs to end users.
“Food prices in Nigeria have been steadily increasing since 2023, when President Tinubu took office. This was predicated on two things: one, the removal of the fuel subsidy; two, the floating of the Naira, and the removal of subsidies from electricity bills and telecom services, leading to hyperinflation. The little power supply we get that used to be at least a rate that people could afford was tripled, and the subsidy in petroleum was also removed, therefore increasing the cost, so what manufacturers and business people do is to transfer the increased cost of doing business to the end user.”
He further argued that for the government to claim a reduction in food prices, those prices must return to what they were before the Tinubu administration, adding that the real impact of inflation on the people had not dropped.
“The only time we can measure the impact of a real drop in food prices on people is if the prices of food go back to what they used to be before Tinubu’s administration inflicted those hyperinflationary measures on Nigerians. Anything beyond that means the prices of food have not gone down. If a bag of rice was just a little bit above N20,000 before Tinubu’s administration, rose to N90,000, and is now back to N40,000, the prices of food have not reduced because the income of the average Nigerian has not increased. Food prices skyrocketed due to reckless policies that made Nigerians almost redundant. How can food prices be reduced when we still have terrorists not allowing farmers to work on their farms?”
Conclusion
While the economic reforms of this administration may have reduced food prices compared to the past three years, data showed that the government oversaw the initial hike.
