ElectionsFact Check

How accurate are Kwankwaso’s figures on Nigeria’s oil production?

On January 26, 2023, the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) presidential candidate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, spoke at Daily Trust’s annual dialogue on his blueprint and how he intends to govern Nigeria if elected.

Mr Kwankwaso, a former minister of defence, expressed concern about how crude oil theft in Nigeria is undermining production and consequently affecting the country’s revenue generation.

The ex-senator made some claims regarding Nigeria’s oil quota and production. But, how true is Mr Kwankwaso’s claims on the oil output of Africa’s largest oil producer?

Claim 1

Claim: Nigeria produces less than one million barrels of crude oil daily.

Verification: A review of data obtained from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shows that from October to December 2022, Nigeria’s oil output was above one million barrels per day.

In October, Nigeria’s average production was 1.014 million barrels per day. The output turnout increased to 1.1 million barrels per day in November. 

By December, Africa’s largest oil producer pumped 1.2 million barrels daily.

OPEC uses secondary sources to monitor its oil output and publishes a table of figures submitted by its member countries.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), in its monthly oil production status report, corroborated the same data published by OPEC.

How accurate are Kwankwaso’s figures on Nigeria’s oil production?

Verdict: False. OPEC monthly oil market report and NUPRC monthly production report.

Claim 2

Claim: Mr Kwankwaso claimed that Nigeria’s oil production quota is more than 2.2 million barrels per day.

Verification: Throughout the past year (2022), the average production quota set by OPEC for 

Nigeria is 1.6 million barrels per day. In January, at the start of 2022, Nigeria’s quota stood at 1.68 million barrels per day. By February, the OPEC quota had increased to 1.7 million barrels daily. 

By March, as the price of crude jumped to $113 per barrel, OPEC also increased Nigeria’s quota to 1.71 million barrels per day. Although oil prices dropped to $105 in April, OPEC increased Nigeria’s required production to 1.73 million daily barrels. With some companies shutting production in May, the average OPEC quota for Nigeria that month was 1.75 million barrels per day. 

By June, the OPEC basket price had climbed again to $118 per barrel, and OPEC’s required production increased to 1.77 million barrels per day. In July, Nigeria’s quota stood at 1.79 million barrels. Meanwhile, between August and December 2022, Nigeria’s required production set by OPEC is 1.8 million barrels per day.

How accurate are Kwankwaso’s figures on Nigeria’s oil production?

Verdict: False. OPEC data shows that Nigeria’s oil production quota is 1.7 million barrels throughout

 the year 2022.

Conclusion

The claims made by Kwankwanso that Nigeria’s oil output is less than one million barrels per day and the oil production quota is more than 2.2 million barrels per day are false.

Data shows that Nigeria produced an average of 1.1 million barrels between October and December last year. Similarly, Nigeria’s oil production quota is 1.7 million barrels throughout 2022.

The researcher produced this fact-check per the DUBAWA 2023 Kwame Karikari Fellowship partnership with Premium Times to facilitate the ethos of truth in journalism and enhance media literacy in the country.

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