President Muhammadu Buhari

President Muhammadu Buhari had always, almost at any opportunity, made claims to decry how previous governments mismanaged the economy and how much Nigeria had made from oil sales since 1999.

He repeated the same statement on Tuesday when he received a delegation of the Buhari Support Organisation (BSO) at the Presidential Villa. The President said that he challenges anyone to check, either in Europe, Asia or America, that between 1999 and 2014, Nigeria was producing 2.1 million barrels per day of crude oil at an average cost of $100 per barrel. He said the price even went up to $143.

“When we came, it collapsed to $37-38 and it was oscillating between $40 and $54 sometimes”, he said.

THE CLAIMS:

1. Between 1999 and 2014, the average cost of crude oil per barrel was $100
2. Nigeria produced crude oil at an average of 2.1 million barrels per day between 1999 and 2014

VERIFICATION OF CLAIMS:

This is not the first time that President Buhari would make claims on oil prices. In 2016 during the Democracy Day celebration, he was recorded to have said that the average oil price was $100 per barrel from 2010 till 2014.

On October 1, 2016, the Nation’s Independence Day, President Buhari, addressing the country, modified his statement that oil prices were “an average of 100 USD per barrel over the last decade.”

During 2017 Independence Day celebration, Buhari widened the timeline to “1999-2015.”

The inconsistency in claims and the need to promote true information makes it imperative to explore the veracity of the claims.

AVERAGE COST OF CRUDE OIL NOT $100

From records of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as quoted by Statista, in 1999, the average annual price of crude oil was about $17.4 per barrel. It was $27.6 in 2000, $23.1 in 2001, $24.3 in 2002, $28.1 in 2003 and in 2004, it was $36.5. Oil sold for $50.5 per barrel in 2005, $61 in 2006, $69 in 2007, $94.1 in 2008, $60.8 in 2009 and in 2010, oil price was $77.3.

In 2011, the average annual price of oil had gotten to a record high of $107 per barrel, increasing to $109 per barrel in 2012, $105.8 in 2013 and $96.2 in 2014.

The average oil price between 1999 and 2014 is $61.7 per barrel and a far cry from an average of $100 per barrel President Buhari had claimed, therefore that claim is INCORRECT.

President Buhari also claims that Nigeria had produced crude oil at an average of 2.1 million barrels per day between 1999 and 2014.

According to NEITI, Nigeria produced about 14,068,235,000 (14 billion) barrels of crude oil averaging about 827,543,235 (827 million) barrels per year since 1999. This leaves us with an average oil production of 2,267,241 (2.2 million) barrels per day.

Therefore, the President’s claim that Nigeria’s oil production figure is an average of 2.1m barrels per day is CORRECT.

In the same speech, the President claimed that there was a time oil price was $143 per barrel. This claim is correct, because according to Country Economy, on July 11th, 2008, oil price historically hit $143.6, However, this is just for a day as the average oil price for the year 2008 was $94.

CONCLUSION

The president’s claim that crude oil was selling for $100 per barrel between 1999 and 2014 is FALSE as available data showed that the figure is $61.7 per barrel. Nevertheless, it was CONFIRMED that Nigeria’s oil production figure is an average of 2.1m barrels per day.

During the All Progressives Congress (APC) National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting, at the party headquarters in Abuja, President Muhammadu Buhari announced his intention to run for re-election in 2019. This statement was released on Monday, 9 April 2018 by the President’s Personal Assistant on New Media Engagement, Bashir Ahmad.

Amidst the news, speculations have arisen with claims that Buhari had previously stated that he would serve for only one term in office, if elected. He is alleged to have said that by the time he would be completing his first term of four years, he would have attained the age of 73, and would prefer to quit the stage rather than perpetuate himself in office.

The Minister of Women Affairs, Aisha Alhassan also said, “in 2014/2015, he [Pres. Buhari] said he was going to run for only one time to clean up the mess that the (previous) PDP government did in Nigeria.”

THE CLAIM:

1.     I will not run for a second term says Buhari

VERIFICATION OF THE CLAIM

Although the President could not be reached as he has travelled for an official visit to the United Kingdom, information was obtained from an interview he granted Mr Theophilus Abbah of Sunday Trust, a subsidiary of the newspaper: Daily Trust. Our staff also contacted Mr Abbah yesterday who confirmed the reports of the interview.

CLAIM: I WILL NOT RUN FOR A SECOND TERM – BUHARI

In an exclusive interview with Sunday Trust in Kaduna on the 6th of February 2011, President Muhammadu Buhari, who was then the presidential candidate of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) said that by the time he would be completing his first term of four years, he would have attained the age of 73, and would prefer to quit the stage rather than perpetuate himself in office.

He said this in response to the question about why he said he would run for just one term if elected. In his response, he is quoted to have said, “I’m not getting younger. If I succeed and do one term, I will be 73 years old.”

Mr Abbah, then asked him that since he is doing just one term, what are the things he would want to do urgently. He replied: “There are two issues and I have said it in one sentence. Security and power. This country has to be secured and managed. People in Nigeria must not go about fearing that they would be abducted. You must not be afraid to the point that you can’t drive from Kaduna to Kano any time of the day. If you are in Lagos, you should have jobs to the point that you can afford to have three shifts in a day. That is eight hours each. But people are now very scared wherever they are. People have built houses worth over a billion naira, but they are afraid to live in them. What is the use? So, security is number one. Number two is structure. We have to revive the electricity sector so that people will have access to power to carry out their businesses. Others include the roads, the railways, the shipping lines. We used to have all these things. In spite of what we earned in the last eleven years, the whole infrastructure has already collapsed.”

Also, according to a Premium Times report, Pres. Buhari inferred that he would be unfit to run for another term. In the report dated 17 June 2015, Pres. Buhari told Nigerians resident in South Africa, after taking part in the 25th Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union in Johannesburg, that his performance will be limited by old age.

“I wish I became Head of State when I was a governor, just a few years as a young man. Now at 72, there is a limit to what I can do,” Mr Buhari said.

CONCLUSION

The details of the interview between President Muhammadu Buhari and Mr Theophilus Abbah of the Sunday Trust show that Pres. Buhari did confirm that he will not be running for a second term once elected into office. Although his exact words were not “I will not run for a second term”, by responding in the affirmative to the question posed, Pres. Buhari consciously agreed that he would not run for a re-election.

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