ElectionsFact CheckPolitics

Tinubu’s claim solid minerals contribute less than one per cent to Nigeria’s GDP true

Claim: The presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Tinubu, stated that the solid minerals sector contributed less than one per cent to Nigeria’s GDP.

Verdict: True

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On Thursday, November 10, 2022, the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential candidate Bola Tinubu claimed that the solid minerals sector contributed less than one per cent to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

He made this assertion while speaking at a town hall meeting with the mining and agro-processing stakeholders in Lafia, Nasarawa State. 

During the meeting, the presidential candidate lamented that Nigeria was well-endowed, given its industrious, energetic population and vast inventory of land, water, and other natural resources. 

He said that the solid minerals sector contributed less than one per cent to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  can be derived as the value of all goods and services available for final use and export. 

During election campaigns, politicians are fond of quoting figures to swing public sentiment in their favour, and it is incumbent that politicians be held accountable for what they say. Hence, we decided to check the veracity of the statement.

Verification 

Having thought of the imperative of verifying the veracity of this claim, we sought to identify the volume of the solid minerals in Nigeria, at least in 2021.

First, we sought evidence from the 2021 mineral production report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) which revealed that the grand total of solid minerals production at the end of 2021 was 89,482,541.07, suggesting an increase of 39.19% from 2020 outputs which stood at 64.29 million tons. 

The report, released in July 2022, also added that Limestone, Granite, and Laterite were the three biggest minerals mined in 2021.

Image courtesy: NBS report, 2021.

What does this translate to in monetary value? How much contribution does the total output add to Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product? 

To answer these questions, we proceeded to find more evidence. 

According to the NEITI audit released in 2020 (the 2021 audit report is being awaited), Nigeria’s total GDP in 2020 was ₦152.32 trillion, with the solid minerals sector contributing N686.64 billion, representing 0.45%. 

Sourced from: NEITI Audit, 2020.

In 2021, according to World Bank data and Trading Economics analysis, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased to 440.78 billion US dollars, amounting to approximately N173.5 trillion, a value which represents only 0.05 per cent of the world economy.

Yet, despite this increase, the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Economic Report for the third quarter of 2021 affirmed that the solid minerals sector contributed the least to Nigeria’s GDP growth with a mere 0.01 US Dollar = 4.4 Nigerian Naira (NGN). 

Image courtesy: CBN. 

And what does the CBN figure translate to in terms of percentage contribution to national GDP? 

Dataphyte analysis of the NBS report shows that the mining and quarrying sector’s total contribution to the GDP increased from 368.9 billion in 2019 to 1.101 trillion in 2021. This means the sector’s contribution to the country’s GDP increased from 0.26% in 2019 to 0.45% in 2020. 

In 2021, the sector, having increased in productivity to 89,482,541.07 million tons, still contributed 0.63% to the total GDP of 440.78 billion US dollars, amounting to approximately N173.5 trillion.

In March 2022, the executive secretary/CEO of NEITI, Dr Ogbonnaya Orji, also confirmed that Nigeria’s solid mineral sector was contributing less than one per cent to the nation’s GDP, having risen from 0.18% in 2018 to 0.29% in 2019. 

Conclusion

Based on information from multiple sources, Bola Tinubu’s claim that solid minerals contribute less than one per cent to Nigeria’s GDP is true.

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