Flags of the US, Israel, and Iran. warring nations. Source: The Media Line
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In February 2026, the conflict in the Middle East over Iran’s rumoured advancement in uranium enrichment came to a head with a United States-led military campaign.
Iran has endured the heaviest burden of the conflict, with over 3,000 citizens dead before the two-week ceasefire announced on April 8, 2026.
Among the dead were prominent Iranian leaders, including former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Aziz Nasirzadeh, the defence minister, and Abdolrahim Mousavi, the armed forces’ chief of staff.
For many Nigerians, the economic reality of the crisis hit home with the disruption of maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, affecting the global energy market.
The surge in petrol prices and transportation costs triggered a wave of inflation threatening to milk Nigerians’ pockets dry.
The current war is uniquely dangerous because it revolves around nuclear energy, one of mankind’s most powerful technological developments.
The United States (US) and Israel, on one side, claim their action prevented a rogue state from acquiring the ultimate weapon, while the Iranians view the attacks as an illegal violation of their national sovereignty.
The clash of wills threatens the global framework for nuclear peace under the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
DUBAWA, in this explainer, examines how a treaty signed decades ago now dictates the life-and-death decisions of modern-day national leaders.
Who is allowed to have nuclear weapons?
The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), adopted in 1968 and entered into force in 1970, was created during the Cold War to prevent the spread of these extremely destructive weapons.
Under this treaty, the world is divided into two categories: nuclear-weapon states (NWS) and non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS). The United States (US), Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom (UK) had already tested nuclear weapons before 1967, making them the nuclear-weapon states permitted to possess nuclear arsenals. At the time, other countries agreed not to develop or acquire them, except Israel, Pakistan, and India.
In exchange for giving up the pursuit of nuclear weapons, non-nuclear states are allowed access to nuclear technology for peaceful purposes, such as energy production and medical research, but under strict international monitoring to ensure compliance.
The treaty is supposed to be a two-way commitment. While non-nuclear states agree not to build weapons, nuclear-armed states are expected to gradually move toward disarmament.
This arrangement has helped limit the number of nuclear-armed countries globally, but over time, cracks have emerged.
North Korea withdrew from the treaty in 2003 and went on to develop nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, the three non-signatories are successfully building their own nuclear arsenals.
These developments raise a critical question: if multiple countries have acquired nuclear weapons outside the treaty framework, why then is the United States focusing so heavily on Iran?
A Crisis Built over Decades
The tensions between the United States and Iran did not begin overnight; instead, they are the result of a long and complicated history.
The relationship deteriorated significantly after the 1979 Iranian Revolution, which led to the overthrow of a US-backed government in Iran. Since then, both countries have viewed each other with deep suspicion.
There were concerns about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which intensified in the early 2000s when reports emerged that the country was developing nuclear facilities.
The United States and its allies feared that Iran was secretly working towards building nuclear weapons, while Iran maintained that its programme was strictly for civilian use.
In 2015, a major breakthrough occurred with the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
Under this agreement, Iran agreed to limit its nuclear activities. Secondly, international inspectors were allowed to monitor its facilities, and lastly, economic sanctions on Iran were lifted
However, the deal began to unravel in 2018, when Donald Trump, in his first term as president, withdrew the United States from the agreement. The administration argued that the JCPOA did not go far enough in preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Following the withdrawal, the US reimposed sanctions, and Iran gradually reduced its compliance with the deal.
Since then, tensions have escalated through diplomatic standoffs, economic pressure, and occasional military incidents, although a full-scale war has not been declared.
Danger of possessing a nuclear weapon
The ongoing conflict stems from debates about the right to peaceful nuclear energy. As one of the signatories to the NPT treaty in 1970, Iran maintained that nuclear activities at sites like Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan exist solely for civilian purposes such as generating electricity and promoting medical isotopes.
However, the US and Israel claimed that Iran’s massive investment in uranium enrichment is a veiled cover for developing a nuclear weapon.
The current state of uranium enrichment in Iran, as reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as of 2025, further reinforced the argument against Iran.
Running a nuclear reactor for electricity requires enriching uranium to about 3.5% or 5%. However, the IAEA reported that Iran had reached a 60% enrichment and was rapidly closing the gap to nuclear weapon creation, which requires about 80% enriched uranium-235.
Nuclear weapons are among the most destructive weapons ever created. They work by releasing enormous amounts of energy from atomic reactions, either through fission or fusion.
Its impact goes far beyond immediate destruction. A single bomb can destroy entire cities within seconds, kill hundreds of thousands of people instantly, cause long-term radiation effects, including cancer and environmental damage.
The world’s first encounter with the weapon of mass destruction was in August 1945 during the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings by the US. Heavy death tolls, hovering around hundreds of thousands, were recorded in both cases.
In Hiroshima alone, an estimated 70,000–80,000 people were killed instantly, with the death toll rising to over 140,000 by the end of the year due to injuries and radiation exposure.
In Nagasaki, about 40,000 people died immediately, with total deaths later exceeding 70,000. Beyond the immediate devastation, survivors suffered long-term effects such as cancer, birth defects, and chronic illnesses.
How does this affect Nigeria?
While the war may appear distant politically, it has direct economic consequences for Nigerians, especially through fuel prices.
Tensions involving Iran, the world’s ninth-largest crude oil producer, often shake global oil markets. The Middle East remains central to global crude supply, and any threat to key shipping routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, can reduce supply expectations and push prices higher.
In recent weeks, Nigeria’s average petrol prices rose from about N1,051.47 per litre in February 2026 to between N1,200 and N1,300 in March, depending on location. Analysts partly linked the hike to the surge in international oil prices caused by the conflict.
Despite being an oil producer, Nigeria suffers from high refined fuel prices due to global crude costs, exchange rates, import logistics, and deregulation.
This means that when global tensions rise, Nigerians often pay more for transport, food, electricity, and other daily essentials.
Soaring jet fuel prices, linked to global supply disruptions, have impacted the aviation sector, prompting Nigerian authorities to urge airlines not to suspend flights or sharply raise fares.
