Image illustrating employment. Source: BusinessDay
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Claim: A chieftain of the All Progressives Congress, Biodun Ajiboye, during an interview on Channels TV, claimed the unemployment rate had reduced in Nigeria courtesy of the policies of the current administration.
Verdict: Misleading! DUBAWA’s findings showed that the country’s economic situation remains dire. The unemployment rate decreased because the NBS adopted a new methodology aligned with international standards.
Full Text
On Jan. 19, 2026, a chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Biodun Ajiboye, appeared on Channels TV and made comments about the country’s economic situation.
During his interview on the station’s Politics Today programme, the chieftain claimed that the unemployment rate in the country dropped drastically from 33% to about 4% courtesy of the policies introduced by the President Bola Tinubu administration.
He further noted that the unemployment rate was at such a level because other sectors of the economy now provide employment, not only the major sectors.
“What we have done is try to reverse the negative tide of the economy. The Unemployment rate has dropped drastically from 33% to about 4% now, the reason being that other sectors of the economy absorb people, not the major sector of the economy,” he said.
He also claimed that President Tinubu did not remove fuel subsidies but only announced their removal. Also, Biodun made claims about the payment of civil servants’ salaries in the various states of the federation.
Meanwhile, DUBAWA observed that during the interview, the host, Seun Okinbaloye, asked whether the APC chieftain was certain of the figures for the unemployment rate.
An X user @OurFavOnlineDoc shared a snippet of the video. Some Nigerians in the comment section also doubted this figure, prompting this research.
@Bosslady_BTc wrote, “Not again! These kinds of snippets should come with a viewer discretion alert! Stop watching ‘unemployment has reduced drastically’ if you want depression, listen to fools like this…”
Another user, @Phoenix_mission, commented, “I stopped watching when he said ‘unemployment rate has dropped drastically’ — Like how now?”
@chiefONOME, on the other hand, queried the X AI assistant Grok for details on the unemployment rate before Tinubu assumed office and what is available in January 2026.
What is the current unemployment rate?
According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the unemployment rate for Q2, 2024, was 4.3%, an improvement from 5.3% in Q1, 2024.
The figures are in sharp contrast to the headline unemployment rate of Q4 2020, which stood at 33.3%.
While on paper, there appears to be a significant improvement in Nigerians’ employment status, these figures changed only because of a change in methodology.
In 2023, the NBS announced that it had adopted a revised methodology for calculating unemployment in line with the International Labour Organisation’s guidelines.
Under the old methodology, the NBS categorised as ‘unemployed’ anyone of working age (15-64 years) who worked fewer than 20 hours or who did not work but searched and were available for work during a week.
NBS then classified anyone of working age who worked at least 40 hours a week as employed.
But under the new methodology, only those who have not worked in the past seven days, have been actively searching for paid work in the past four weeks, and are available to start work within two weeks are considered unemployed.
With the new methodology, Nigerians (15 years and above) who worked for at least one hour during the week were considered employed.
To this end, some people who were previously classified as unemployed are now categorised as employed.
Recall that in 2023, the newly appointed Statistician-General of the Federation, Adeyemi Adeniran, explained that the drop in figures was due to the new methodology adopted by the National Bureau of Statistics for conducting the survey, rather than to government performance.
He further clarified that there is no factual basis for comparing the data from two years ago, when the report was last released, with the current figures.
“NBS has not said that the unemployment rate in Nigeria has reduced from 33.3% to whatever the figure is now; therefore, the government should go to sleep.” No, that is not what we have said,” he was quoted as saying.
“The figures today are not based on any performance of any sort, but strictly, and I repeat, strictly on the change in methodology…. This is based on the new ILO standard, which Nigeria is part and parcel of, as a country.”
An interesting fact with this new methodology is that 93% of the employed population were in informal employment. The ILO defined informal employment as “working arrangements that are in practice or by law not subject to national labour legislation, income taxation, or entitlement to social protection or other employment guarantees.”
In reality, this means that the majority of the workforce does not enjoy job security.
In October 2025, a World Bank report noted that despite the Nigerian government’s economic reforms, about 139 million citizens remain in poverty. The figure indicated a sharp increase from 129 million recorded in April 2025 to 87 million in 2023.
Experts opinion
Segun Ajibola, past President/Chairman of Council of the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria, told DUBAWA that the new methodology adopted by the NBS doesn’t change people’s situation, urging the government to take pragmatic steps to solve the economic problems.
“If you rebase the GDP, to some extent, that can be explained because over time, the value of your currency changes, so there may be a need to reflect the reality. But when you rebase inflation and unemployment. It doesn’t change anything; the real situation remains the same.
“Inflation was recalculated when it was 34% to 24%, which doesn’t change what people are going through in terms of cost of living. Although the NBS changed the computation of unemployment rate from 33% to 4.3%, there are many in their millions out there roaming the streets, looking for means of livelihood, graduates and non-graduates.”
Segun questioned why the Nigerian government does not rebase figures upward to reflect current economic realities.
“Statistics will not solve those problems. It is the government’s responsibility to take pragmatic measures to address the reality, not by introducing any statistical formula. Why is it that regularly, we find it convenient to rebase downwards? Why can’t we rebase upwards to match the reality? Rebasing the figures to look good doesn’t change what the average person is going through.”
Another Professor of Economics, Akpan Ekpo, told DUBAWA that he does not support the new methodology adopted by the NBS in computing the unemployment rate.
Akpan explained that the current figures suggest the country is at full employment and could send the wrong signals to policymakers, whereas the citizenry still grapples with employment issues.
He said, “The new method is an embarrassment. If you’re an economist and you see that sudden drop in figures, you’ll ask why. The ILO supported that method, and part of it says that if you work for one hour a week, you are employed; that doesn’t make any sense.
“The current figures suggest that the country is at full employment, which is not true. If the country is at full employment, we will not have the problem that we have now. That method is not right, and some of us challenged it. It sends wrong signals to policymakers.”
Akpan said unemployment data is critical, urging the government to ensure transparency by continuing with the old methodology and publishing the unemployment rate using both metrics.
“Unemployment data is critical. The benchmark for you to say you have full employment is about 4.1% to 5%, so the decline was challenged. How can we jump from 33% to 4.3%? We still face many economic challenges, yet the government claims the economy is stable. How can it be stable when there are lots of unemployed people?
“What the government can do if they want to be transparent is to publish the result of the two methods — let us see the result of the old method and this current one… unemployment data must capture the frequency of unemployment, duration, and incidence of unemployment. We need to know how they did their survey, but it is an ILO method,” he said.
He further argued that in developed countries, if a person worked for 1 hour a week, they might receive additional government benefits. He stressed that the method is not right for Nigeria.
He added that with the new unemployment rate, this should translate into less misery for people, but this is not the case, as current reports indicate that over 130 million people are living in poverty, with another 10 million expected to be plunged into poverty by 2026.
“…In a country of 200 million people, if over 140 people are living in poverty, then how can we claim full employment? There is a problem,” he said.
Conclusion
While Nigeria’s unemployment rate currently stands at 4.3% according to the latest figures (Q2, 2024), this does not reflect the government’s performance. The decrease in statistics is due to NBS’s revised methodology.
