|
Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...
|
Numbers often fly faster than facts when Nigerians are debating political or religious issues. So when Vivian Rora, an X user, said (archived here) that the country is “57% Christian” and that a Muslim–Muslim presidential ticket amounts to “Islamisation,” her claim quickly spiralled into arguments about who has dominance and representation.
FactCheckHub described her claim as “false” using the commonly cited demographic sources in these kinds of debates. But behind the viral claim, and even behind fact checks, sits another question: where do these religious percentages actually come from, and how accurate are they?
This explainer unpacks how Nigeria determines its religious statistics, what the data sources show, and why claims like “57% Christian” deserve a closer look.
Nigeria does not know the number of Christians or Muslims in the country
Nigeria’s population data is chaotic, and its religious demography is even more complex.
Nigeria has not officially counted its Muslim and Christian populations in 62 years. The last time the National Population Commission (NPC) asked questions about religion in its census was in 1963. This question was omitted from the 1991 and 2006 censuses. In fact, the NPC said it would not have considered asking in the 2023 census if it had taken place.
For these decades, officials deliberately avoided collecting religious information because they considered it a “sensitive” subject that could cause conflict. This has left room for assumptions, estimates, and narratives that, most of the time, outgrow the evidence behind them.
So, as of 2025, not only does Nigeria not know the number of its occupants, but no reliable official dataset exists on the exact percentage of Christians, Muslims, or traditionalists in the country.
Where, then, do estimated figures originate?
Because Nigeria has not included religious information in its census for over 6 decades, all widely circulated figures are estimates rather than government data. These estimates rely heavily on household surveys from organisations that often sample groups of people and then generalise the results. Meanwhile, their approach does not usually reflect the accurate picture.
For example, the Pew Research Centre, a United States-based organisation, is often cited for its research on religious demographics. In Nigeria, it is referenced to say 56.1 per cent are Muslims, Christians make up 43.4 per cent, and 0.6 per cent for others.
On the other hand, the Association of Religion Data Archives (ARDA) estimated Muslims as 46.3 per cent and Christians as 45.8. The page is archived here.
Likewise, Statista said (archived here) Nigeria has 53.5 per cent Muslims, 45.9 per cent Christians, and 0.6 per cent others.
The disparities you observe stem from the lack of census data, and estimates vary based on several factors, including sample size and region, weighting methods, fertility and migration assumptions, underrepresentation of certain groups, and survey timing.
A closer examination of these data sources reveals issues that extend beyond mere loopholes. For instance, Statista referenced a survey titled “Nigeria – The World Factbook” by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) as the source for its data. However, upon reviewing the so-called “survey,” we found that it was not a quantitative research work. Rather, it was a comprehensive country profile detailing Nigeria’s geography, governance, and economy, among other topics. And while this profile contained the data Statista referenced, it failed to provide any methodology, sample size, or original source for those figures.
On the other hand, ARDA quoted the World Religion Database as its source. However, the World Religion Database is not openly accessible, and users can only see their data through a registered institution or with a special passcode. The fact that a dataset like the World Religion Database (WRD) is not publicly accessible means no journalist, not even fact-checking organisations like DUBAWA, can independently question or verify its methods. And for a sensitive topic like the religious population in Nigeria, this may count as low transparency.
We also reviewed Pew’s methodology section. Unlike Statista and ARDA, the research centre stated that it utilised “more than 2,700 data sources” in its global study.
“These sources include censuses; large-scale demographic surveys, which often survey more than 10,000 people; general population surveys, which typically survey 1,000 to 3,000 people; information from population registers; the World Religion Database; and government reports,” it wrote.
While the centre used national censuses as data sources for other countries, it specifically relied on the Demographic and Health Survey (2013), the Demographic and Health Survey (2018), and the Pew Research Centre’s Global Attitudes Project (2024) because Nigeria has not had a recent census.
A consensus would be that Demographic and Health Surveys only measure religion among household members of reproductive age. However, to determine the religious identity of children, older adults and other household members, Pew said it used age, sex, and fertility patterns to estimate the likely religious identity of these people.
While Vivian’s post on X that 57 per cent of Nigerians are Christians might be triggering, Nigeria does not have official census data to counter her claim. And because Nigeria has not conducted a “religious census” in over six decades, any claim citing a precise percentage of Christians or Muslims is fundamentally flawed. While estimates can provide context, they cannot substitute for official government data.
